Home Economics 2:00PM Water Cooler 12/5/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 12/5/2023 | bare capitalism

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2:00PM Water Cooler 12/5/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Music of the Day

Undulated Tinamou, Cachuelita; Rio Tahuamanu. Tons occurring, together with a buzzing insect and, I swear, a prepare whistle.

* * *

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

Ah, the well-known Biden “empathy”:

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

* * *

“No, Trump Did Not Say ‘We’ve Been Waging an All-Out Struggle on American Democracy’” [Snopes]. “Given the context of the comment (he was speaking about Democrats), Trump presumably meant to say, ‘They’ve been waging an all-out warfare on American democracy,’ however flubbed the sentence such that he really mentioned, per the audio recording, ‘We’ve been waging an all-out warfare in American democracy.’” • What a disgrace, and a lot frothing and stamping.

“A Warning” [Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic]. A banner: “In The Atlantic’s January/February 2024 concern, 24 writers think about what a second Trump time period would appear like.” • A complete concern! (“If Trump Wins” — “The workers of The Atlantic on the risk a second time period poses to American democracy”). They’ve already labored themselves right into a lather. What’s it going to be like a month earlier than election day?

“Trump Is Attacking Biden With Lies—and Getting Away With It” [Michael Tomasky, The New Republic]. “Will it work? Provided that the Democrats let it…. First, I’ve been overlaying these individuals for a protracted, very long time, and that is all the time, all the time, their first reflex: to not go toe-to-toe with the Republicans. To not combine it up…. Second, think about the Republicans in an analogous scenario. You assume they’d say, No, we don’t must assault? After all they wouldn’t. And we are able to debate till the cows come dwelling whether or not, say, all these Benghazi hearings and investigations have been efficient. I don’t know. However I do know that Hillary Clinton didn’t turn out to be president, and I really feel sure that simply dragging her up there for hearings, although she largely ate their lunch, nonetheless created in swing voters’ minds an image of a girl all the time on the defensive, all the time having to reply for one thing (once more, each single allegation was false, however that didn’t matter).” • Preaching to the choir; the occasion of RussiaGate doesn’t have a complete lot to say about mendacity. In any case, it appears to me that by not electing Clinton, an lively member of The Blob, we averted warfare within the Center East (bear in mind the “No Fly” zone?), and, trying again, most likely Ukraine as properly. Prevented for 4 years no less than. Not such a foul factor!

“Trump tries to show the tables — however swing voters received’t be satisfied by his ‘warfare on democracy’ remix” [Heather Digby Parton, Salon]. “That is Trump’s one true expertise. He instinctively understands the facility of turning his personal flaws into his rivals’ after which criticizing them for it. Psychologists name this ‘projection’ and it’s. However it’s greater than that. Trump is corrupt and incompetent and he’s projecting that onto Biden to make sure. However he’s additionally feeding the cynicism that has overtaken our political tradition.” • This mentality may be very unusual. Trump is concurrently very weak (“Trump’s one true expertise”) and immensely highly effective (“most vital election of our lifetime,” although not acknowledged by Parton).

* * *

“Right here’s the ‘Jan. 6 Jurisprudence’ About to Be Unleashed on Trump” [Julie Kelly, RealClearPolitics]. “Whereas Particular Counsel Jack Smith’s workforce and Trump’s counsel spar over numerous points, maybe the most important dispute will concern whether or not will probably be attainable to seat an neutral jury for the presumptive 2024 GOP nominee in a metropolis that voted 92% for Joe Biden in 2020…. U.S. District Court docket Decide Tanya S. Chutkan lately set a jury choice schedule for Smith’s four-count indictment in opposition to Trump for the occasions of Jan. 6. She ordered each events to start growing a questionnaire, due Jan. 9, 2024, that a whole lot of D.C. residents will likely be requested to finish so the courtroom can start the preliminary step of removing unqualified jurors… Trump’s legal professionals aren’t discussing their technique publicly, however sources have indicated to RealClearInvestigations that the protection will file a change of venue movement within the subsequent month or two. Given the partisan composition of Washington, saturation protection of the previous president’s ongoing authorized woes, and town’s comparatively small inhabitants, Trump may have a robust argument in favor of transferring the trial exterior of the nation’s capital. But a assessment of Jan. 6 instances so far suggests the chances are in opposition to that. Not a single choose on the D.C. District Court docket has granted a change of venue movement even for high-profile trials equivalent to these for members of the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys, the so-called “militia” teams concerned within the Capitol protest.”

* * *

“US Muslims launch anti-Biden marketing campaign forward of 2024 presidential election” [Anadalu Agency]. “Muslims within the US have launched a marketing campaign in opposition to President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election in 2024 over his help for Israel in its warfare in opposition to the Palestinian group Hamas. A bunch of Muslim leaders from Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania gathered over the weekend in Dearborn, Michigan to launch the marketing campaign. The marketing campaign goals to encourage voters to withdraw their help for Biden as a consequence of his ‘unwillingness to name for a cease-fire and defend innocents in Palestine and Israel,’ it mentioned in an announcement…. The organizers emphasised that Muslim group leaders would collaborate to make sure Biden’s defeat in these states.” • Swing states. I’m unsure Biden thought this by.

* * *

“Comer Releases Direct Month-to-month Funds to Joe Biden from Hunter Biden’s Enterprise Entity” (press launch) [House Committee on Oversight and Accountability]. Concept of the case: “The Home Oversight Committee has recognized over 20 shell corporations and uncovered how the Bidens and their associates raked in over $24 million {dollars} between 2015 and 2019 by promoting Joe Biden as ‘the model.’ Monetary information obtained present Hunter Biden’s enterprise account, Owasco PC, obtained funds from Chinese language-state linked corporations and different overseas nationals and corporations. Funds to Joe Biden from Hunter’s Owasco PC company account are a part of a sample revealing Joe Biden knew about, participated in, and benefited from his household’s affect peddling schemes. Because the Bidens obtained hundreds of thousands from overseas nationals and corporations in China, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Kazakhstan, Joe Biden dined along with his household’s overseas associates, spoke to them by speakerphone, had espresso, attended conferences, and finally obtained funds that have been funded by his household’s enterprise dealings.”

“The Hunter Biden Saga Continues” [Wall Street Journal]. “Home Republicans simply took two massive steps towards impeaching President Biden. The primary got here on Saturday, when Speaker Mike Johnson mentioned he has the votes to approve a impeachment inquiry into the president, which might make official then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s declaration of 1 again in September. The second got here Monday, when Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer made public a subpoenaed financial institution report exhibiting that Joe Biden obtained in 2018 no less than three direct month-to-month funds of $1,380 from Hunter Biden’s agency, Owasco PC. This comes on the heels of final week’s information {that a} financial institution investigator raised crimson flags in June 2018 about what Oversight says was ‘cash from China that finally funded the $40,000 verify’ to Joe Biden from his sister-in-law.” • These are all small sums, however then the Biden clan are low-cost grifters. Extra attention-grabbing is what the cash comes not from Hunter — expensive Hunter! — personally, however from (one in all) his agency(s), into which cash from who-knows-where flowed (China, most likely).

“Home GOP Reveals Funds From Hunter to Joe Biden” [RealClearPolitics]. “The White Home was unaware Monday afternoon of the newest revelation from the Home Oversight Committee: earlier, reoccurring funds from Hunter Biden to his father…. Hunter Biden’s lawyer, nevertheless, was not unaware of the funds. They have been for a truck. ‘There Chairman Comer goes once more – reheating what’s previous as new to attempt to revive his sham of an investigation,’ Abbe Lowell mentioned in an announcement to reporters. ‘The reality is Hunter’s father helped him when he was struggling financially as a consequence of his dependancy and couldn’t safe credit score to finance a truck. When Hunter was in a position to, he paid his father again and took over the funds himself.’ Extra particularly, the funds have been for a high-performance pickup truck, a Ford Raptor.” • Lowell is unsuitable, in actual fact mendacity. Pricey Hunter didn’t pay his father again. His regulation agency did. The quantities, nevertheless, are trivial, solely 2.3 occasions the $600 Joe Biden owes me. Absolutely, with the financial institution information in his possession, Comer can do higher than this?

“Comer mischaracterizes Hunter Biden automobile cost reimbursement to his dad” [WaPo]. “Joe Biden signed for the truck and had it in his title — at a time when Hunter was within the depths of dependancy, had a low credit score rating and couldn’t make the acquisition himself, based on an individual near the Bidens, talking on the situation of anonymity to debate a non-public matter. The truck was used just for a restricted time, going again to the supplier a few 12 months after the acquisition.” • WaPo recycles Lowell’s misdirection. Hunter didn’t pay something. His regulation agency did. And the regulation agency made its cash how?

* * *

“DeSantis says he’ll win Iowa” [Politico]. Iowa is January 15. Shut! DeSantis on Meet the Press: “We’re going to win Iowa. I believe it’s going to assist propel us to the nomination.” • I dunno. It’s attainable that DeSantis can set himself up for a “Comeback Child” narrative a la Invoice Clinton in NH, 1992, and the press would possibly even play alongside — DeSantis is a persistent cuss, nonetheless hanging round, I’ll give him that — however an outright win? I don’t assume so.

“DeSantis Units Himself Up for Humiliation in Iowa” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “Given the numerous troubles afflicting the DeSantis marketing campaign and his two super-PACs currently, maybe he thought calling his shot…. .would function a tonic for his beleaguered troops. However the actuality is that, barring a miracle, he’s virtually actually not going to beat Donald Trump in Iowa. He trails the previous president by almost 30 factors within the RealClearPolitics polling averages for the first-in-the-nation caucuses. And whereas there have actually been upsets in Iowa earlier than, nobody has come again from that massive a deficit this late within the day, notably in opposition to a front-runner like Trump with an intensely dedicated base of help and few obvious vulnerabilities that he hasn’t already refuted. DeSantis’s actual problem in Iowa, furthermore, is to carry second place in opposition to Nikki Haley, who has been gaining on him within the polls there (really tying him in the newest gold-standard Iowa Ballot from the Des Moines Register, NBC Information, and Mediacom) and passing him as if he’s standing nonetheless in polling of New Hampshire and South Carolina.” • Nikki Haley, whose help is completely natural….

* * *

“R.F.Ok. Jr. Allies Say They’ll Spend Over $10 Million on Poll Entry” [New York Times]. “An excellent PAC backing the impartial presidential candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is planning to spend $10 million to $15 million to get Mr. Kennedy on the poll in 10 states, a considerable effort that, even when partly profitable, might heighten Democratic issues about his potential to play the position of spoiler in 2024….. The tremendous PAC, American Values 2024, has raised no less than $28 million… The states, which embrace a number of battlegrounds, are among the many nation’s most populous and carry, between them, 210 Electoral Faculty votes — Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Texas.” Hmm. Too dangerous RFK threw away the Muslim vote. Extra: “Marc Elias, one of many Democratic Celebration’s main election legal professionals, has been retained by the tremendous PAC American Bridge to vet third-party and impartial candidates’ poll entry in battleground states the place such candidates might injury Mr. Biden.” • Elias is an actual piece of labor (Elias was the cut-out between the Clinton marketing campaign and Fusion GPS, which procured the Steele memo).

* * *

IA: “Desire playing cards will give Iowa Democrats 4 choices for president” [Bleeding Heartland]. “Registered Democrats who take part within the 2024 Iowa caucuses by mail will be capable to choose one in all 4 choices for president. The Iowa Democratic Celebration’s State Central Committee voted on December 2 to ratify presidential choice playing cards that can record President Joe Biden, U.S. Consultant Dean Phillips of Minnesota, creator Marianne Williamson, and ‘uncommitted.’ , Stephen Gruber-Miller reported for the Des Moines Register. Uncommitted has all the time been an possibility at Iowa Democratic caucuses, and received probably the most delegates in 1976. In current many years, few caucus-goers have chosen to remain uncommitted. The occasion shouldn’t be calling the choice playing cards ‘ballots,’ partially to keep away from upsetting New Hampshire officers who jealously guard that state’s regulation guaranteeing the primary major within the nation. Though the playing cards will likely be tallied like ballots are, the caucus is a party-run operation, not an election administered by county and state officers.” • Cornel West blew it….

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in actual fact, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

We get e-mail:

The “most sincere” declare could in actual fact be appropriate, for the reason that declare that Democrats have overperformed on the state stage is true (and bonus factors for the Oxford comma). Apparently, “employees and households” is a brand new locution, akin to the horrid “working familes” however implying the opportunity of employees with out (standard) households; a nod to youthful voters? Or perhaps the change is a random blip, froth within the multiverse, as a result of “we are able to’t afford [to have] state legislative races fly below the radar” actually isn’t English, making me considering the Democrats have a shiny new AI.

“Class Battle and the Democratic Celebration” [Musa Al-Gharbi, The Liberal Patriot]. “The important thing schism that lies on the coronary heart of dysfunction inside the Democratic Celebration and the U.S. political system extra broadly is between professionals related to ‘data financial system’ industries and people who really feel themselves to be the ‘losers’ within the data financial system—together with rising numbers of working-class and non-white voters.” And:

Comparable patterns held in 2020: the occupations and employers with the most important variety of employees who donated to the Biden-Harris marketing campaign included lecturers, educators and professors, legal professionals, medical and psychiatric professionals, individuals who work in promoting, communications and leisure, consultants, human assets professionals and directors, architects and designers, IT specialists and engineers. Industries that offered the highest complete contributions to the Democrats included securities and funding, training, legal professionals and regulation corporations, well being professionals, non-profits, electronics corporations, enterprise companies, leisure, and civil service.

After all, these “employees” aren’t restricted to the “data financial system” (which I suppose is a candidate for the semantic house as soon as occupied by Richard Floria’s “artistic class” again in 2008). These are the PMC. Clearly, there’s no critical class evaluation occurring right here; Al-Gharbi is simply stringing collectively buzz-phrases. Extra:

The rising dominance of information financial system professionals over the Democratic Celebration has had a spread of profound impacts on the modern U.S. political panorama. At first, it has contributed to a rising disconnect between the financial priorities of the occasion relative to most others within the U.S., particularly working-class People. As sociologist Shamus Khan has proven, the economics of elites are inclined to function “counter-cyclically” to the remainder of society, which means that developments that are typically good for elites are sometimes dangerous for everybody else and vice versa.

Because the article title suggests, an amusing reinvention. Anyhow, I can’t bear to learn any extra. Hilariously, we’re all Thomas Frank now, together with quondam identification politics maven Ruy Teixeira, whose weblog that is.

“‘Time to Be Daring’: Recommendation for Democrats from a Quietly Highly effective Governor” [Politico]. Tim Walz is the Democrat governor of Minnesota. “Folks usually use the DGA chairmanship as a strategy to construct a nationwide fundraising community as they give thought to operating for president, so ought to we learn something into your transfer right here? WALZ: Nicely, I’m flattered that you’d say so. No, I simply consider within the DGA. I wish to give again. I’ve seen the effectiveness of it. They helped me in my race. But additionally, I’m a agency believer now that governors do make a distinction. We noticed it in Minnesota, we noticed it in Michigan, we noticed it in Colorado. We see these trifecta states bettering people’ lives, and so that is my strategy to give again. I consider within the group. And I’m simply honored to do it. However you’re not ruling something out sooner or later? [WALZ] I’ve a buddy of mine who all the time mentioned, ‘Don’t ever flip down a job you’ve by no means been supplied.’ So, my job is to give attention to this, and to be sincere, I’ve bought 11 races subsequent 12 months and that’s my focus.” • Nudging his hat towards the ring?

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Jacobin as soon as once more endorses Sweden’s “herd immunity” COVID insurance policies” [WSWS]. “Jacobin was a key voice in supporting ‘herd immunity’ from the start. First, in September 2020 Jacobin promoted and interviewed Martin Kulldorf, the Swedish-American educational who co-authored the Nice Barrington Declaration that sanctioned mass an infection with COVID-19 even earlier than the rollout of vaccines. In a passage from the interview, approvingly retweeted by Jacobin writer Bhaskar Sunkara, Kulldorff declared, ‘The lockdown is the worst assault on the working class in half a century.’” I’d have thought the a whole lot of hundreds of deaths have been? However perhaps that’s simply me. Extra: “Quickly after his interview with Jacobin, Kulldorf held a non-public assembly with Donald Trump to advise him on his COVID-19 response, which centered on absolutely reopening faculties, discouraging masking and selling giant public gatherings to facilitate the unfold of the virus. Additionally current on the assembly have been GBD co-authors Jay Bhattacharya and Sunetra Gupta, in addition to Scott Atlas and Joseph Ladapo.” Tremendous ugly. WSWS has Jacobin lifeless to rights on this. And: “These forces, whether or not Jacobin, Vänsterpartiet (the Left Celebration), the Swedish Social Democrats, the DSA, or numerous different pseudo-left teams all over the world, don’t signify the working class and aren’t socialists. Their management is inventory stuffed with middle-class careerists for whom the pandemic has largely been seen as an unlucky accident, an annoyance, maybe a tragedy, however all-together one thing up to now and unavoidable.” • Right, although one would assume {that a} Marxist-adjacent publication like WSWS would keep away from the mushy time period, “center class.”

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

* * *

Maskstravaganza

“Little one masks mandates for COVID-19: a scientific assessment” [BMJ]. A meta-study. “We screened 597 research and included 22 within the last evaluation. There have been no randomised managed trials in kids assessing the advantages of masks sporting to cut back SARS-CoV-2 an infection or transmission. The six observational research reporting an affiliation between youngster masking and decrease an infection fee or antibody seropositivity had vital (n=5) or critical (n=1) danger of bias; all six have been probably confounded by vital variations between masked and unmasked teams and two have been proven to have non-significant outcomes when reanalysed. Sixteen different observational research discovered no affiliation between masks sporting and an infection or transmission. Actual-world effectiveness of kid masks mandates in opposition to SARS-CoV-2 transmission or an infection has not been demonstrated with high-quality proof.” • If we assume [genuflects] RCTs to be “high-quality,” not a given. This examine is, naturally, being trumpeted by eugenicsts like Monica Ghandi, who performs the same old rhetorical trick of reworking “has not been demonstated” into “doesn’t.” Ghandi, maybe unfairly, makes this examine suspect in my eyes; so does all of the faffing and moaning about needing to see kids’s faces. In any case, whatever the examine’s validity, one would assume that inappropriateness of masking for (say) kids below 5 would make it all of the extra vital for different non-pharmaceutical interventions, like air flow, air filtration, adults sporting masks, and so forth. Oddly, or not, the eugenicists by no means take this additional step.

Immune Dysregulation

Mild breaking by, if a bit late:

Transmission

“The counterintuitive implications of superspreading ailments” [Nature]. Essential! “Our current theoretical research have proven that superspreading performs a profound position in figuring out the best methods to curb a illness outbreak…. Particularly, we discovered that mitigation methods that scale back contacts in public areas are vastly more practical when superspreading is a key driver of excessive common transmissibility (R0). Consequently, the closing of venues equivalent to live performance halls and bars can considerably curb the unfold of a superspreading respiratory pathogen, whereas the identical measures could do little to halt a non-superspreading pathogen with the identical primary reproductive quantity. The origin of this impact lies within the statistics of superspreading, which considerably counterintuitively indicate that the majority contaminated people don’t turn out to be very infectious. Thus, mitigation of a superspreading illness depends on both a) immediately focusing on interventions at superspreaders or b) limiting the variety of contacts that the everyday contaminated particular person has. The previous technique depends upon with the ability to a priori determine the superspreader—usually virtually inconceivable [due to Covid’s aymptomatic nature]—whereas the latter doesn’t.” IMNSHO, the entire notion and framing of “lockdowns” was silly. One wanted to have a look at venues and their air flow traits (Japan’s 3Cs) and shut down on that foundation, not on the premise of venue perform (i.e., some church buildings would keep open, others wouldn’t, and the one’s that have been closed would have the selection of creating the adjustments to maintain the general public protected). Ah properly. Extra: “Due to this fact, it’s vital to differentiate between superspreading as a consequence of social conduct/contact fee heterogeneity, and superspreading rooted in organic components, all of which can have an effect on susceptibility in addition to infectiousness. At current, the precise etiology of the superspreading phenomenon stays incompletely understood.” • Nicely value a learn.

“Superspreader” [IMDB]. “Through the COVID-19 lockdowns, an Evangelical Christian singer stands up for non secular liberties by holding mass out of doors worship live shows.” • Pricey Lord.

Sequelae

“Grey Matter Thickness and Subcortical Nuclear Quantity in Males After SARS-CoV-2 Omicron An infection” [JAMA]. From the Key Factors: On this cohort examine of 61 male sufferers with Omicron an infection, the grey matter thickness within the left precuneus and proper lateral occipital area and the ratio of the correct hippocampus quantity to the whole intracranial quantity have been considerably lowered within the acute part. Grey matter thickness and subcortical nuclear quantity harm have been considerably related to anxiousness and cognitive perform.” • So, literal mind injury. Alrighty then.

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Plenty of exceptionally nasty sequelae, probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind injury, together with character adjustments therefrom.

* * *

Elite Maleficence

CDC performs “the inexperienced map” trick a second time, inexperienced being way more enjoyable than the crimson it changed (MV):

Extra:

I confess I didn’t see or increase the colour concern; I appreciated the “shades of grey” scale, as a result of it allows me to differentiate excessive ranges (black) from low (gentle gray). However the critics are appropriate concerning the “soothing” agenda, and never utilizing crimson to sign hazard is an actual loss (although for me the extra colourful variations don’t work as high-to-low scales). Anyhow, suffice to say that there’s a huge literature on this matter within the design subject, which I’ve not mastered, however suffice to say that CDC butchered the job, and for his or her regular dangerous motives.

Yet another touch upon the size:

* * *

Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, November 27:

Lambert right here: Case counts transferring well upward (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was making an attempt to hide once they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).

Regional information:

That Midwest near-vertical curve is regarding, though as ever with Biobot you need to look ahead to backward revisions.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, November25:

Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, however BA.2.86 developing quick on the surface.

From CDC, November 11:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of ailing intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 25:

Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater information. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.

NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, no less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, although CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even stepping into the standard of the wastewater websites that we now have as a proxy for Covid an infection total.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of December 5:

Steadily up. New York state as a complete appears to be like extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, no less than. November 25:

Up..

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

From Walgreens, December 4:

0.2%. Up. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.)

From Cleveland Clinic, December 2:

Lambert right here: Improve (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

From CDC, traveler’s information, November 13:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, November 6:

BA.2.86 20% of the the whole final week, 25% of the whole this week.

Deaths

Whole: 1,184,159 – 1,183,754 – 1,183,664 = 405 (405 * 365 = 147,825 deaths per 12 months, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would really like, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could should determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of dying and illness). 

Lambert right here: This quantity is simply too small it doesn’t matter what. Iowa Covid19 Tracker hasn’t been up to date since September 27, 2023. I’ll should revert to CDC information. Yech.

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED The Economist, November 18:

Lambert right here: Gonna should whack this, too. How does an automatic mannequin not replace? Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Provide Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index Present” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index in america fell to 49.4 in November of 2023 from 56.5 in October which was the very best in 9 months. The logistics sector moved again to contraction after three straight months of progress, as corporations are promoting off inventories rapidly as a consequence of This autumn vacation gross sales.”

Companies: “United States ISM Companies PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Companies PMI elevated to 52.7 in November 2023 from 51.8 in October, beating forecasts of 52. The studying pointed to stronger progress within the companies sector, amid sooner will increase in enterprise exercise/manufacturing and employment.”

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Tech: “The primary humanoid robotic manufacturing unit is about to open” [Axios]. “A manufacturing unit planning to pump out 10,000 two-legged robots a 12 months is taking form in Salem, Oregon — the higher to assist Amazon and different big corporations with harmful hauling, lifting and transferring. Agility Robotics says that its RoboFab manufacturing facility would be the first to mass-produce humanoid robots, which might be nimbler and extra versatile than their current industrial counterparts. China appears to assume so: Beijing lately introduced a objective of mass-producing humanoid robots by 2025. Agility Robotics, which makes a bot named Digit that’s being examined by Amazon, plans to open RoboFab early subsequent 12 months, inaugurating what CEO Damion Shelton calls ‘the world’s first purpose-built humanoid robotic manufacturing unit.’ ‘We’ve positioned a really excessive precedence on simply getting robots on the market as quick as attainable,’ [CEO Damion Shelton], who’s additionally a co-founder, tells Axios. ‘Our massive plan is that we wish to get to general-purpose humanoids as quickly as we are able to. There’s a rising backlog of orders for Digit, which the corporate says is the primary commercially accessible human-shaped robotic designed for warehouse work. Agility has produced about 100 robots since its founding in 2016.” • Kill them with fireplace.

Tech: “ChatGPT can leak coaching information, violate privateness, says Google’s DeepMind’ [ZD Net]. The deck: “Merely instructing ChatGPT to repeat the phrase ‘poem’ endlessly pressured this system to cough [barf] up complete sections of textual content copied from its [stolen] coaching information, breaking this system’s guardrails.” • There’s that “guardrails” metaphor once more….

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As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 67 Greed (earlier shut: 68 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 64 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 5 at 1:57:14 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged. But once more!! [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra sincere than most! • What’s with this index holding regular? Not sacrificed sufficient goats? No crimson heifer?

The Gallery

Ugh:

No matter that is, it’s not a panorama.

The Jackpot

“Analyzing the Historic Charge of Catastrophes” [Bounded Regret]. ” If we outline a disaster as an occasion killing 1% of the worldwide inhabitants inside a decade, then 11 such catastrophes have occurred since 1500, for a base fee of two% per 12 months. If we increase the bar to killing 10% of the inhabitants, the bottom fee drops by an order of magnitude, to 0.2%…. Historical past additionally provides us qualitative insights. As an example, all of the catastrophes within the earlier paragraph have been epidemics, wars, or famines. Additional, many occasions have been multi-causal—the worst epidemics occurred when populations have been already weakened by famine, and plenty of epidemics and famines have been precipitated by adjustments in local weather or by political turmoil. Species extinctions are additionally multi-causal, and the widespread culprits are local weather change, pure disasters, invasive species, and people…. From this angle, what are the attainable drivers of disaster within the twenty first century? Some solutions are apparent from the record above—pandemics, local weather change, and main wars proceed to be critical threats. Famines are much less clearly threatening, because the final main one was in 1961, however getting ready for them should be prudent. And political turmoil, when not itself catastrophic, creates the circumstances for different catastrophes to happen.” • Nicely value a learn. A little bit grim, however I’m a “Give it to me straight, doc” sort of man. These are numbers it’s good to have.

Information of the Wired

“Russell’s Paradox of ghostwriters” [Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science]. “That individual memoir-book was a gag, nevertheless it bought me considering of this common concept of recursive writing. A author hiring a ghostwriter . . . what an amazing concept! After all this occurs on a regular basis when the author is a model title, as with James Patterson. However then what if Patterson’s ghostwriter is busy and hires a ghostwriter of his personal…” • Now throw AI into the combo…

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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From EM:

EM writes: “Here’s a mushroom rising out of an previous sunflower stem. It might be a contemporary artwork masterpiece. ”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

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