Home Economics 2:00PM Water Cooler 12/1/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 12/1/2023 | bare capitalism

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2:00PM Water Cooler 12/1/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Music of the Day

Horned Screamer, Táchira, Venezuela. Brief however candy!

* * *

Politicsd

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Capitol Seizure

“Rep. Loudermilk confirms all videotapes from Jan. 6 Committee depositions are gone” [Just the News]. “”All the videotapes of all depositions are gone,” Rep. Barry Loudermilk, R-Ga., chairman of the Home Administration oversight subcommittee, instructed the “Simply the Information, No Noise” tv present Thursday evening. Loudermilk stated he believes underneath the Home guidelines the videotapes certified as congressional proof as a result of some clips had been aired at hearings, and all of the tapes ought to have been preserved by the now-defunct J6 committee and its chairman, Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss…. Loudermilk additionally revealed one other tantalizing twist within the J6 committee proof: . Home Republicans haven’t any data of who the witnesses had been, what they stated, or why it’s being utilized by the federal prosecutor of their case towards Trump, Loudermilk stated. The paperwork ‘belong to the Home. They need to have by no means been despatched. And second of all, don’t ship them again to me this closely redacted. These are our paperwork,’ the chairman stated. ‘However my query is, why was it okay for a Democrat-run Home of Representatives to have unredacted paperwork however not when there’s a Republican committee that’s wanting into this. What’s it that the committee and or the White Home is attempting to cover?’” • And that’s a great query to ask, isn’t it? (And if these depositions are getting used as proof by the Prosecution in any of Trump’s trials, effectively….)

Biden Administration

2024

Lower than a yr to go!

Lambert right here: 340 days is a very long time in politics. Within the formulation of stability vs. volatility — that’s, the view that the race is a “common order” of Trump v. Biden, vs. the view that it’s certainly not sure that Trump and/or Biden will nominated, elected, and allowed to imagine workplace, and additional, that the means by which the events will choose their candidates is unknown, and even the character of victory is unknown — I’m firmly on the aspect of volatility. Therefore my grimly detailed and methodical pointillist methodology; we have to know as a lot about all of the gamers and fields as we presumably can, as a result of we can’t know who will emerge from the pack, and even, at this level, why. The powers that be can rig the election all they need, but when the canines gained’t eat the rigging, what then? And if they’ll, what then? So strap yourselves in.

* * *

“The RNC’s guidelines for the 2024 conference don’t deal with what would occur if Donald Trump is convicted” [Associated Press]. “The Republican Nationwide Committee’s guidelines for subsequent yr’s nominating contest and conference had been launched this week with out addressing a query the GOP may effectively face subsequent summer time: Can the social gathering’s delegates vote for a distinct candidate if the presumptive nominee is convicted of a felony?” Properly, we will all the time make up the principles as we go alongside! Extra: “At subsequent yr’s conference, which begins July 15 in Milwaukee, there shall be alternatives to tweak the principles when they’re adopted or to droop them, which might require two-thirds of delegates to approve on a vote. ‘It’s a parliamentary physique,’ stated Benjamin Ginsberg, a Republican election lawyer. ‘It could all the time work its will if it desires to 1 means or one other.’ Such last-minute maneuvers are troublesome to arrange and there are few present indicators that delegates would possibly search for another choice even with Trump’s prison circumstances looming.”

“My Father, My Religion, And Donald Trump” [The Atlantic]. At his Father’s funeral: “Now the group swarmed round us, filling the sanctuary and spilling out into the foyer and adjoining hallways, the place tables displayed flowers and golf golf equipment and pictures of Dad. I used to be numb. My brothers too. None of us had slept a lot that week. So the primary time somebody made a glancing reference to Rush Limbaugh, it didn’t compute. However then one other particular person introduced him up. After which one other. That’s after I linked the dots. Apparently, the king of conservative speak radio had been name-checking me on his program not too long ago—”a man named Tim Alberta”—and describing the unflattering revelations in my guide about Trump. Nothing in that second may have mattered to me much less. I smiled, shrugged, and thanked folks for coming to the visitation. They stored on coming. Greater than I may rely. Folks from the church—folks I’d recognized my whole life—had been greeting me, not primarily with condolences or encouragement or mourning, however with commentary about Limbaugh and Trump. A few of it was playful, guys remarking about how I used to be the identical mischief-maker they’d recognized since kindergarten. However a few of it wasn’t playful. A few of it was indignant; a few of it was chilly and confrontational. One man questioned whether or not I used to be actually a Christian. One other requested if I used to be nonetheless on “the best aspect.” All whereas Dad was in a field 100 toes away.” • Price studying in full.

“What Would a Trump Administration Imply for the Warfare in Ukraine?” [Russia Matters]. “It’s after all a very long time till the subsequent U.S. presidential election, and far might occur in that point each within the U.S. and Ukraine, however, at current, opinion polls counsel each that Donald Trump would be the Republican presidential candidate and that he stands a great likelihood of beating Joe Biden. A second Trump presidency appears prone to imply enormously diminished help for Ukraine, presumably mixed with a U.S. push for a peace settlement. With out very excessive ranges of U.S. army assist ($61.4 billion so far), will probably be unimaginable for Ukraine to proceed the combat. A second Trump administration is a prospect that European governments dread, however that they can not affect. Nor have they got the flexibility, unity or will both to provoke negotiations themselves, or to substitute for U.S. army assist to Ukraine. They’re due to this fact additionally in ready mode. In the meantime, the Ukrainian institution is in a state of nice confusion and division. Consciousness is dawning that the possibilities of full victory are slight, and time shouldn’t be on Ukraine’s aspect; however the authorities has declared so typically and so publicly {that a} compromise peace is unacceptable (particularly regarding even a brief territorial compromise throughout a ceasefire) that will probably be extraordinarily troublesome for them to conform to talks, except they arrive underneath huge public strain from Washington or endure a extreme army defeat. As for the Russian authorities, it senses that point is on its aspect, and likewise seems prepared to attend within the hope that Russia’s far larger reserves of manpower and ammunition mixed with Western and Ukrainian conflict weariness will finally pressure Ukraine to just accept Russian phrases (albeit ones that may most likely be far lower than Moscow hoped for when it launched the conflict). Vladimir Putin—who’s poised to run for reelection within the spring—additionally hopes {that a} Trump administration would promote such a settlement.”

* * *

“Florida GOP Chair, Whose Spouse Co-Based Mothers for Liberty, Accused of Sexual Assault amid Ménage à Trois Scandal” [People]. “Christian Ziegler, the top of Florida’s Republican Social gathering, is underneath prison investigation following an allegation of sexual battery, the Sarasota County Police Division confirms to PEOPLE. His accuser claims that she’d been in a consenting three-way sexual relationship with Christian and his spouse, Bridget Ziegler, for a while main as much as the incident, in line with the Florida Heart for Authorities Accountability. Whereas Christian chairs the Florida GOP, Bridget sits on Sarasota County’s faculty board and co-founded the far-right group Mothers for Liberty, a corporation that advocates towards any point out of LGBTQ rights, race, ethnicity, vital race concept, or discrimination in class curriculum. Although now not with Mothers for Liberty, Bridget was one of many driving forces behind Florida’s divisive ‘Don’t Say Homosexual’ laws. A closely redacted report offered by the Sarasota PD reveals that an nameless particular person accused Christian — whose title is hid on the doc — of sexual battery on Oct. 4 at a house in Sarasota. The phrase ‘raped’ is included within the report, although its context can also be redacted.” • And to assume I believed the Florida Republican Social gathering was a well-oiled machine….

* * *

“DeSantis’ Marketing campaign Might Have Flunked Its Remaining Check After Newsom Debate” [Daily Beast]. “Newsom typically appeared bewildered at simply how clumsy the DeSantis efficiency turned out, and took each alternative to hammer house his prime gripes with the governor. He additionally went out of his solution to defend President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris all through the practically two-hour affair…. Each Newsom and Hannity grew weary of DeSantis’ fixed interjections, with the California governor telling him to ‘loosen up,’ whereas Hannity asserted he wasn’t ‘a potted plant’ and requested DeSantis to let Newsom converse on a couple of events. ‘Let one another breathe,’ a surprisingly Zen model of Hannity stated early on within the debate, to no avail. Past the countless crosstalk that ensued, the governors re-litigated their dealing with of the COVID-19 pandemic and even spent nearly 10 minutes on the distinction between progressive revenue taxes and flat gross sales taxes.”

“Prime takeaways, actual winner of DeSantis, Newsom debate” [FOX]. “Towards all expectations, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis completely destroyed California’s Gavin Newsom in Thursday evening’s Crimson State-Blue State debate moderated by Sean Hannity on Fox Information. Sure, the governor of Florida had a stronger hand – his state has seen a large influx of residents drawn to the higher high quality of life supplied by the Sunshine State, whereas folks have been fleeing California. On problem after problem raised by Hannity, DeSantis may roll out statistics that show the success of the conservative common sense insurance policies he has carried out in Florida. However the shock was in his robust and persuasive presentation. DeSantis is mostly perceived to be a wood speaker and campaigner; possibly his run for president has made him more practical. Newsom, however, is reputed to be the Democrat’s smooth-talking, politically intelligent president-in-waiting, the possible successor to Joe Biden ought to the president drop out of the 2024 race. ”

“In debate with Newsom, how may DeSantis lose? Hannity pitched him nothing however softballs” [Miami Herald]. “As for winners and losers? Onerous to inform. Newsom, although susceptible on a couple of points, was in there punching and landed some good traces. “Utilizing human beings as pawns is disqualifying to be president,” he stated about DeSantis’ migrant flights. Once more, the host and the viewers — in the event that they caught round — had been ready-made for DeSantis, and he stood to learn from the uneven taking part in area. How may he lose? He didn’t must strive very exhausting. He received all his marketing campaign speaking factors in with out being challenged by Hannity. However it wasn’t truthful; with all of the raucous interrupting and overtalk, it wasn’t even a debate. No, it was a circus.”

“Republican DeSantis, Democrat Newsom conflict in acrimonious debate” [Reuters]. “DeSantis held his personal and had a powerful exhibiting towards Newsom, a talented debater, however it was possible inadequate to revive his stuttering marketing campaign.” • Though oppo researchers are poring over the tapes proper now….

* * *

“Kamala Harris reveals she would ‘after all’ inform the American public if there was a ‘drawback’ with Biden” [FOX]. “CNBC host Andrew Ross Sorkin requested Harris if she would ever disclose to the American public if there was an issue with Biden. ‘Do you assume in your position, that you just’re able to do this?” he requested throughout an interview with Harris at The New York Occasions Dealbook Summit. ‘After all, if essential, however there’s no want for that. I don’t, there’s a political argument that’s being made. That isn’t based mostly on substance, and also you’re asking me to hypothesize round what are my duties to the American folks, as vice chairman of the USA, which can be based mostly on ethics and morals and the legislation. I’ll all the time observe these guidelines, however I’m suggesting to you that it is necessary we not be seduced into one of many solely arguments that that aspect of the aisle has proper now,’ she stated.” • So Harris appoints herself gatekeeper. Swell. (Additionally, Harris’s language is like uncanny valley; she’s barely off, always (“hypothesize round what are my duties”). It’s like she’s not a local speaker, although she is.)

“Why Democrats are beginning to panic over Biden’s ballot numbers” [Washington Times]. “The frightened Democrats are fearful that somewhat than untimely predictions of electoral failure, they’re seeing early warning indicators that Biden is just too weak to win. If these numbers don’t quickly enhance earlier than the polls have higher predictive energy, will probably be too late for a course correction. Given the submitting deadlines in lots of major states in addition to the twin challenges of getting each Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to step apart, it could already be too late.”

Republican Funhouse

“Behind the Curtain — Scoop: The Trump job functions revealed” [Axios]. “We instructed you in a ‘Behind the Curtain‘ column final month that Trump allies are pre-screening the ideologies of 1000’s of potential appointees and staff in case he wins again the White Home. Now we’ve got copies of the precise questionnaires Trump allies are utilizing — and that then-President Trump used himself throughout his closing days in workplace…. Trump insiders are planning a much more focused and complex sequel to his haphazard first time period, when inside feuding deterred coverage wins or everlasting modifications to authorities…. The 2020 questionnaire — paired with the appliance the Heritage Basis is presently accumulating from job prospects for a future administration — factors to a top-down government-in-waiting that may be pushed extra by ideology than by coverage experience or innovation.” • One other means of placing that: The ideology is the innnovation. I ponder if BoJo did one thing comparable?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in reality, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“The Rural Problem for Democrats” [The Liberal Patriot]. “The Democratic Social gathering’s decade-plus-long collapse in rural and micropolitan America stands as one of many nice obstacles to strengthening the nation’s democracy. Owing to institutional constraints that restrict easy majoritarian rule—the Electoral School and the U.S. Senate specifically—rural areas exert a disproportionate affect on elections, the geographic distribution of political energy, and the power of social gathering coalitions. Gerrymandering by Republican-controlled state legislatures compounds this dynamic by both clustering liberal-leaning voters in a couple of districts or splitting them throughout boundaries that favor conservatives. However somewhat than determine their weak point in nonmetro areas as an issue to be solved by way of conventional party-building efforts, too a lot of as we speak’s Democrats regard rural America with a combination of resignation, denial, and disdain. Beset with a rural status continuously described as ‘poisonous,’ the social gathering’s inept strategy is mirrored in maps of partisan management. Except a handful of seats, congressional Democrats draw energy from the coasts and enormous cities (at 40 seats, the California delegation alone makes up practically 20 p.c of the 212-strong Home Democratic caucus). Workplace-holding on the state degree equally tracks the social gathering’s overreliance on the Northeastern seaboard and West coast in presidential elections. Have been it not for concerted efforts by native Democrats in Minnesota and Michigan through the 2022 midterms, Illinois could be the one state legislature managed by Democrats within the Midwest; unsurprisingly, they management none within the South.”

“Cuomo attorneys contend texts undermine Trooper 1’s allegations” [Times-Union (Bob)]. Method down within the story: “Cuomo’s attorneys additionally allege within the court docket submitting that the feminine investigator shouldn’t have disclosed data to Nevins about her perception that Cuomo had lied in regards to the purpose that . She additionally instructed Nevins that the FBI ought to examine the secretive testing program, which concerned high-ranking state Well being Division officers who facilitated acquiring expedited take a look at outcomes for Cuomo’s relations. Cuomo’s authorized group contends the feminine investigator ‘revealed confidential data to Nevins about Governor Cuomo’s contact together with his relations’ when she instructed him that Cuomo lied when he stated his relations, together with his mom, sister and brother, had acquired the precedence testing as a result of that they had been round him.” • Oh. You may wager Cuomo wasn’t the one one.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“CTIL Recordsdata #1: US And UK Army Contractors Created Sweeping Plan For International Censorship In 2018, New Paperwork Present” [Michael Shellenberger, Alex Gutentag, and Matt Taibbi, Public]. I Linked to this a couple of days in the past, however I’m linking to it once more, as a result of generates perception within the “realignment and legitimacy body. The topic is the delivery (or, should you desire, Floor Zero) of the Censorship Industrial Advanced: “Now, a big trove of recent paperwork, together with technique paperwork, coaching movies, displays, and inside messages, reveal that, in 2019, US and UK army and intelligence contractors led by a former UK protection researcher, Sara-Jayne ‘SJ’ Terp, developed the sweeping censorship framework. These contractors co-led CTIL, which partnered with CISA within the spring of 2020. In fact, the constructing of the Censorship Industrial Advanced started even earlier — in 2018. Inside [Cyber Threat Intelligence League (CTIL) Slack messages show Terp, her colleagues, and officials from DHS and Facebook all working closely together in the censorship process. The CTIL framework and the public-private model are the seeds of what both the US and UK would put into place in 2020 and 2021, including masking censorship within cybersecurity institutions and counter-disinformation agendas; a heavy focus on stopping disfavored narratives, not just wrong facts; and pressuring social media platforms to take down information or take other actions to prevent content from going viral.” Gramsci urges, somewhere, that state and civil society can be separated only as objects of study. That is, we cannot think of the State as a single entity, a la the “Deep State.” Both are aspects of the same governing class of people, all playing their roles (sometimes multiple roles) in parallel and intersecting fields. As for example: “According to the whistleblower, roughly 12-20 active people involved in CTIL worked at the FBI or CISA. “For a while, they had their agency seals — FBI, CISA, whatever — next to your name,” on the Slack messaging service, said the whistleblower.” • Janine Wedel’s model of networked “Flexians” (The Shadow Elites) is far better framework to approach understanding these developments; I should really review it one day. Anyhow, here is Taibbi’s accompanying video:

“Who Are Able to Rouse Up Leviathan?” [Ed Simon, The Baffler]. “TWO YEARS AGO, within the final yr of an ill-fated interval of dwelling in Washington, D.C., and pretending that I used to be fascinated by what lanyards needed to say, I gave a discuss faith and journalism at a kind of political magazines with an anodyne title. Based by a thinker whom you’ve all heard of (Google “finish of historical past”), the assembled had been broadly “centrists,” presumably an assortment of neoliberal By no means Bernie Democrats and neoconservative By no means Trump Republicans, all of whom I assumed had been a lot additional to the best than myself. Regardless of our apparent coverage variations, I discovered the individuals—Zoomed into the little squares organized just like the opening credit of The Brady Bunch on my laptop computer—to be unflaggingly well mannered, considerate, and clever. In any case, we had been all basically liberals, even when I’ll outline myself as a left-liberal (which is to say that between barbarism and socialism, I’m most likely going to go for the latter). But no matter their commitments to the “free” market that’s at greatest a chimera and at worst a fraud, we had a consensus on ideas that may be traced again to the eighteenth-century, which is to say a perception within the dignity of people, the equality of all folks, and the universality of those beliefs (that final one is extra of a helpful assemble in my thoughts). The one tenet of liberalism on which we meaningfully differed was of their religion within the inevitability of purpose to collectively enhance the human situation. For me, that’s a quixotic religion with no empirical backing.” • Ulp! And in a not-unrelated publish–

“Eugenics as an ideology” [Chloe Humbert]. “A few of the denial surrounding the eugenics-like choices within the pandemic has relied upon a slim unipolar understanding of eugenics. The traditionally most recognizable idea of eugenics is the place energetic intervention is completed to decide on the winners and losers, corresponding to pressured breeding, sterilization, deprivation, and murderous executions, by the energetic will and overtly admitted selections of the folks in energy over the scheme, asserting their authority to take action…. The presumably extra prevalent, and considerably extra insidious model of eugenics ideology, that has flown underneath the radar in our trendy world, is the variability that spawned grotesque and wholly unscientific concepts like ‘pure herd immunity’ within the pandemic, as pushed by Scott Atlas and The Nice Barrington Declaration adherents. To withhold prevention of affected by these susceptible. he proponents of one of these eugenics declare that they’re leaving it as much as ‘nature’ or, alternately, particularly a divine energy, relying on their spiritual or secular orientation. The purpose is to cease any intervention that may save folks they assume are ‘weak’ or ‘undeserving’ not directly as inappropriately countering the superior ‘nature’ to do its factor. This contains resistance to all public well being measures like masks, vaccines, meals help, healthcare fairness, and even catastrophe reduction and common schooling in public faculties. By no means thoughts that interventions are pure too, as a result of people do them, the identical means birds construct nests, however clearly folks draw the road on “pure” wherever it’s handy to their function.” • In apply, “nature” doesn’t do its factor in any respect, however establishments, differentiallly utilized or, within the vulgate, “the luck of the draw.” That’s why I take advantage of the time period “stochastic eugenicism,” for the reason that completely satisfied end result on the inhabitants degree could seem random on the particular person degree.

“Julianna Margulies Says Black Palestine Supporters Have Been ‘Brainwashed to Hate Jews’” [Rolling Stone]. “Discussing the Civil Rights Motion, Margulies famous that ‘the Jews had been those that walked aspect by aspect with the Blacks to combat for his or her rights. And now the Black neighborhood isn’t embracing us and saying ‘We stand with you the best way you stood with us’? Jews died for his or her trigger. The place’s the historical past lesson in that? Who’s instructing these youngsters? As a result of the truth that the whole Black neighborhood isn’t standing with us, to me, says they don’t know, or they’ve been brainwashed to hate Jews.” • There may be, after all, an infinite dogpile happening proper now over this. To me, Margulies’s remark displays the vacuity of Id Politics. Definitely “not all Jews” “walked aspect by aspect” with “the Blacks”; and going unmentioned is the truth that a lot of those that did, within the Thirties, had been — [gasp] — Communists. Including to the hilarity are coments to the impact that crediting “the Jews” for this makes them “white saviors,” piling a Pelion of idiocy upon the Ossa of a fallacy of composition. We don’t even must get to, er, figuring out all Jews with the state of Israel to see how confused this whole line of considering is.

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

* * *

Immune Dysregulation

On mycoplasma pneumonia (“strolling pneumonia”), or no matter it’s, reasoning by analogy, I wrote:

I don’t assume the case is iron-clad, however it positive appears that means, vs. different explanations like seasonality and so-called immunity debt. I feel the exact mechanism is underneath dialogue, however IMNSHO “immunue dysregulation” is the best concept at a excessive degree. FWIW!

Individuals who had been near the AIDS disaster might appropriate this blue sky hypothesis, however IIRC, AIDS symptons had been initially “gentle” [***cough***] and solely over time did the “ID” (Immune Deficiency”) side change into clear, what with Kaposi sarcoma, thrush, and so on. /p>

To this point, SARS-CoV-2’s trajectory is unnervingly just like AIDS, even other than the sudden eruption of mysterious ailments. Culturally, condoms = masks; “secure intercourse” = air flow. When it comes to response, CDC and the political class at the moment are what they had been then. I’m hawkish on this, and I imagine that in a yr, “Airborne AIDS” will begin reaching the mainstream, and rightly. In impact, we’re collectively opening a marketplace for costly prescribed drugs at the least an order of magnitude larger than these for AIDS. Silver lining!

Laying down a little bit of a marker, right here. Now you recognize my priors!

“Now MASSACHUSETTS says it’s being hit by wave of pneumonia in youngsters as Ohio county points “white lung” warning – after China and Europe noticed surge in circumstances and hospitalizations” [Daily Mail]. “Medical doctors in elements of Massachusetts and Ohio are reporting a spike in baby pneumonia circumstances just like the outbreak spreading in China and elements of Europe. In Warren County, simply 30 miles outdoors Cincinnati, there have been 142 pediatric circumstances of the situation — dubbed ‘white lung syndrome’ — since August, a determine well being officers there described as ‘extraordinarily excessive’. ‘Not solely is that this above the county common, it additionally meets the Ohio Division of Well being definition of an outbreak,’ the county’s well being division stated Wednesday. In the meantime, in western Massachusetts, physicians are seeing ‘a complete lot’ of strolling pneumonia, a milder type of the lung situation, which is being brought on by a combination of bacterial and viral infections. Neither outbreak is being brought on by a novel pathogen and never all the pneumonia circumstances are being brought on by the identical an infection. Consultants say a combination of a number of seasonal bacterial and viral bugs are hitting directly, placing strain on hospitals. It has raised fears that the outbreak that has overwhelmed hospitals China may hit the US this winter. A number of European nations are battling comparable crises.” • Why now? Why youngsters? Why such a speedy unfold? ‘Tis a thriller! This isn’t instantly pertinent, however–

Testing and Monitoring

Suppose “artisanal wastewater”:

Instructions:

That is a really new concept, so though Marc Johnson is a wonderful account, I don’t know if this system is canon. Readers?

Scientific Communication

Methods of denial:

Every technique being an entire failure of scientific communication by the general public well being institution.

An infection

“COVID-19 ramping up within the Quad Cities, hospital officers say” [KWQC]. ” Hospitalizations for COVID-19 are on the rise within the Quad-Cities, and well being consultants are once more reminding folks to take precautions as we head into the vacations. As folks transfer indoors and collect for holidays, a spokesperson for UnityPoint Well being-Trinity stated there are precautions folks can take to remain secure, together with repeatedly washing your arms and staying house when sick.” • [lambert bangs head on desk]. Sooner or later, we’ve got to rule out ignorance as an evidence.

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” could be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with character modifications therefrom.

* * *

Elite Maleficence

Completely happy Anniversary (1):

Completely happy Anniversary (2):

The Biden Administration’s coverage of malign neglect (“stochastic eugenicism”) is clearly seen on this, our silly timeline.

* * *

Case Information

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, November 27:

Lambert right here: Case counts transferring neatly upward (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was attempting to hide once they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).

Regional information:

That Midwest near-vertical curve is regarding, though as ever with Biobot it’s important to look ahead to backward revisions.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, November25:

Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, however BA.2.86 developing quick on the skin.

From CDC, November 11:

Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services reduce by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information shall be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 25:

Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater information. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.

NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even stepping into the standard of the wastewater websites that we’ve got as a proxy for Covid an infection total.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of December 1:

Steadily up. New York state as a complete seems to be extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the least. November 18:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, November 27:

0.4%. Up. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and received examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, November 25:

Lambert right here: Enhance (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, November 6:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, November 6:

BA.2.86 coming alongside properly.

Deaths

Complete: 1,183,754 – 1,183,664 = 90 (209 * 90 = 18,810 deaths per yr, as we speak’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). 

Lambert right here: This quantity is just too small it doesn’t matter what. Iowa Covid19 Tracker hasn’t been up to date since September 27, 2023. I’ll must revert to CDC information. Yech.

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED The Economist, November 18:

Lambert right here: Gonna must whack this, too. How does an automatic mannequin not replace? Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States ISM Buying Managers Index (PMI)” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 in November 2023, the identical as in October, and under forecasts of 47.6, persevering with to level to contraction within the manufacturing sector. Corporations are nonetheless managing outputs appropriately as order softness continues.”

* * *

The Fed: “Fed’s Curiosity Price Hikes Are In all probability Over, however Officers Are Reluctant to Say So” [Wall Street Journal]. “Financial coverage is at its most economically restrictive setting in 25 years, and it might want to keep tight ‘for fairly a while,’ New York Fed President John Williams stated at a convention on Thursday. ‘We have to watch,’ Williams instructed reporters after a speech. ‘I’ve to evaluate, ‘OK, how is that this taking part in out?’”

* * *

At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 67 Greed (earlier shut: 66 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 66 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 1 at 1:28:17 PM ET.

Class Warfare

“Billionaires amass extra by way of inheritance than wealth creation, says UBS” [Financial Times]. “‘The heirs to billionaires are gaining prominence,’ stated Benjamin Cavalli, UBS’s head of world wealth administration strategic shoppers. ‘New billionaires minted throughout this yr’s examine interval accrued extra wealth by way of inheritance than entrepreneurship. That’s a theme we anticipate to see extra of over the subsequent 20 to 30 years, as greater than 1,000 billionaires go an estimated $5.2tn to their youngsters.’” • Finest, I feel, to think about capitalal as being owned by households/clans. Not people (so “Each billioniare is a coverage failure” shouldn’t be fairly proper). Looks as if a marketing campaign problem…

Information of the Wired

“Who Makes the Most Dependable New Vehicles?” [Consumer Reports]. • American manufacturing prowess (U.S. companies highlighted):

I’m slightly amazed to see Tesla forward of Cadillac. I imply, final I checked, Elon nonetheless couldn’t run a paint sales space, so Cadillac have to be actually dangerous.

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Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Desert Dawg:

Desert Dawg writes: “The tree trimmers are again at work this fall.”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So should you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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