Home Economics 2:00PM Water Cooler 11/30/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/30/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/30/2023 | bare capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Wastewater stans, there’s an intensive evaluation of CDC’s new NWSS web site within the Covid Instances part, underneath the Biobot charts. Take pleasure in! –lambert

Fowl Track of the Day

Northern Screamer, Sucre, Colombia. Heaps happening!

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“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“Bombenomics: Biden admin circulates map displaying states that profit from Ukraine support” [Politico]. “Battleground states Pennsylvania and Arizona are reaping billions of {dollars} from Washington’s efforts to arm Ukraine, in keeping with a graphic the Biden administration has circulated on Capitol Hill…. POLITICO reported final month that the White Home was switching up its messaging after working into continued resistance on Capitol Hill, after figuring out that promoting the battle funding effort based mostly on nationwide safety wasn’t altering minds.” •

The Supremes

“The brand new SCOTUS Code of Conduct” [SCOTUSblog]. “There are issues to love concerning the Code of Conduct that the Supreme Court docket promulgated earlier this month. It’s a bona fide code of conduct—one which, in the principle, tracks the Code of Conduct for U.S. Judges. It follows the identical construction, options the identical 5 canons, and consists of a lot of the similar provisions which might be worded in the identical means…. And it isn’t honest to sentence the brand new code as toothless as a result of it consists of no enforcement mechanism. That stated, there are some problematic variations between the brand new SCOTUS Code and the Code of Conduct for U.S. Judges…. The brand new code doesn’t impose an obligation to ‘be devoted to…the legislation,’ as required by Canon 3(A)(1) of the Code of Conduct for U.S. Judges. It’s attainable that this obligation was thought redundant of the Canon 2(A) obligation to ‘respect and adjust to the legislation’ (which the court docket retained). The duty to respect and adjust to the legislation, nonetheless, considerations the obligation to abide by the legislation in a choose’s each day life, whereas the obligation to be devoted to the legislation considerations an obligation to uphold and apply the legislation when deciding circumstances. For justices underneath elevated fireplace for ideological, partisan-seeming decision-making, the optics of the court docket exempting itself from an obligation to uphold and apply the legislation is unlucky….. The brand new SCOTUS Code qualifies the statutory obligation to disqualify when a justice’s ‘impartiality would possibly moderately be questioned’ by including language decoding it to imply that ‘an unbiased and affordable one that is conscious of all related circumstances would doubt that the Justice might pretty discharge his or her duties.’ Whereas in line with interpretive precedent, this clause is cherry-picked to omit steering that the ‘affordable individual’ isn’t a choose however an out of doors observer, who’s much less inclined than a choose to credit score the choose’s impartiality. ”


Lower than a 12 months to go!

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“Appeals court docket reinstates gag order that barred Trump from maligning court docket employees in N.Y. fraud trial” [Boston Globe]. “A New York appeals court docket Thursday reinstated a gag order that barred Donald Trump from commenting about court docket personnel after he frequently disparaged a legislation clerk in his New York civil fraud trial. The one-sentence determination from a four-judge panel got here two weeks after a person appellate choose had put the order on maintain whereas the appeals course of performed out. Trial choose Arthur Engoron, who imposed the gag order, stated he now deliberate to implement it ‘rigorously and vigorously.’” • I don’t know for those who’ve learn Frank Herbert’s great The Dosadi Experiment, the place the authorized system constructed by the frog individuals, the Gowachin, permits anybody in “the Courtarena” to be killed, together with judges, attorneys, and, after all, clerks. Trump appears to assume he’s on the planet of the frog individuals, not planet Earth. Depart the employees alone, ffs. They shouldn’t be gamers!

“Decide and clerk in Trump civil fraud trial have obtained tons of of ‘severe and credible’ threats” [CNN]. “Since October 3, when Trump posted on social media a baseless allegation about Decide Arthur Engoron’s legislation clerk, threats in opposition to the choose ‘elevated exponentially’ and have been additionally directed to his clerk, in keeping with Charles Hollon, a court docket officer-captain in New York assigned to the Judicial Threats Evaluation unit of the Division of Public Security, who signed a sworn assertion. Hollon stated the threats in opposition to the choose and his clerk are ‘thought-about to be severe and credible and never hypothetical or speculative.’”

“Bid to carry Trump accountable for Jan. 6 violence stalls at appeals court docket” [Politico]. “A federal appeals court docket mulling Donald Trump’s authorized legal responsibility for Jan. 6 violence is approaching a conspicuous anniversary of inaction. Practically a 12 months in the past, the court docket thought-about three lawsuits introduced by Capitol Cops and members of Congress accusing Trump and his allies of inciting the assault that threatened their lives and the federal government they have been sworn to guard. However their efforts to carry Trump accountable have languished. The D.C. Circuit Court docket of Appeals usually decides circumstances inside 4 months of oral arguments, however the trio of Trump lawsuits has been sitting on the court docket’s docket with no ruling since they have been argued final December.”

“Genius or Suicide” [Judith Butler, London Review of Books (Acacia)]. From 2019, nonetheless germane. “I’ve supplied not more than a dream sequence of my very own. It could be that disgrace and guilt has suffused all he has ever felt. The jury is out. My wager/dream is that he would quite die than pause to really feel the disgrace that passes by way of him and is externalised as destruction and rage. If he ever registers disgrace, it could be solely in that briefest second simply because it turns outwards, to be expelled into the world round him. It may well by no means correctly be lived as his personal, as a result of his psychic construction is constructed to dam it – a big process. If in the long run disgrace ever turns again on him, it will – in keeping with the foundations of his psychic playbook – be a suicidal submission. Count on then a really lengthy and loud howl, as he launches a climactic accusation in opposition to the entire world. Allow us to hope that by then he has been disadvantaged of his entry to navy energy.” • Wild stuff, particularly contemplating that Trump began zero (0) wars, and Biden began at the very least one (1).

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“Can the Anti-Trump Coalition Maintain?” [The Bulwark]. “Loads can change in a 12 months however the citizens is shifting, and the anti-MAGA coalition is splintering. Trump leads Biden in nationwide polling and swing state polling. Biden’s total approval hovers round 39 p.c, nowhere close to what’s required for an incumbent to win a second time period, and the numbers on his administration of the financial system—the primary difficulty—are worse… So who’re the voters being newly persuaded by Trump? These potential new swing voters aren’t MAGA, they aren’t pumped for the discharge of the J6 tapes, they usually don’t give a passing thought to the outrages of Hunter Biden. They’re nonwhite, younger, and unbiased, they usually belief Trump extra on the financial system, international coverage, and immigration. Whereas a second time period of Trump will destroy democracy and probably destabilize your entire world, these Individuals both don’t know that, don’t imagine it, or don’t care.” In phrase: Deplorables. Extra: “[T]hus far, it doesn’t seem the necessity to defend democracy is retaining collectively the voting bloc Biden wants to dam Trump. Pollster Stanley Greenberg concluded the Democracy Corps Battleground Survey findings present these points received’t carry Democrats house. ‘That may be a harmful technique when the bottom of Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, LGBTQ+ neighborhood, Gen Z, millennials, single and school ladies give Trump greater approval scores than Biden,’ he wrote.” • Yikes!

“Black Voters Are Drifting Away from Democrats. Will That Harm Biden in SC?” [Politico]. “Three years after Donald Trump pulled about 8 p.c of the Black vote nationally, polling this month by The New York Instances and Siena Faculty of six battleground states discovered his help had bumped as much as 22 p.c of the Black citizens if the election have been held at this time. Different polls regarded even worse for the Democrats; a nationwide ballot by CNN registered Trump’s help amongst Black voters at 23 p.c, whereas an earlier Fox Information ballot put it at 26 p.c. These are jaw-dropping numbers for a demographic that, historically, has been the Democratic Occasion’s most dependable voting bloc. And it’d be dangerous sufficient for the Democratic Occasion if the erosion of Black help was strictly about Biden or the seemingly Republican nominee, former President Trump. Among the many Democrats assembly right here, there was common and disquieting settlement that Trump’s enchantment is just a part of the rationale for the erosion of Black help. Jeremy Jones, a Democratic Occasion official from Lexington County, stated some Black individuals who noticed Trump’s identify on stimulus checks in 2020 inform him, ‘At the very least he acquired one thing accomplished for the Black neighborhood.’ …. [Jay Parmley, the executive director of the state party’s] concern, shared by many Democrats, isn’t a lot that Black voters will migrate to Trump in important numbers, however that, when November 2024 comes round, some would possibly merely not end up to vote. And there’s loads of proof to again that concern. Turnout amongst Black voters within the midterm elections final 12 months dropped off almost 10 share factors from 2018.” • Hmm. The identical erosion was evident in 2016. Democrat being Democrats, nothing has been accomplished.

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“Group Biden’s nice double quarter pounder ‘misinformation’ marketing campaign” [Washington Examiner]. “On Sept. 20, Politico revealed an article headlined ‘Biden’s marketing campaign set to counterpunch on misinformation.’ The story reported that President Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection marketing campaign is ‘overhauling’ its technique to battle ‘misinformation’ on social media. The brand new effort consists of ‘recruiting tons of of staffers and volunteers to watch platforms.’ To oversee the work, the marketing campaign employed a former Biden White Home staffer named Rob Flaherty, who was described as a ‘bulldog’ and a ‘controversial determine’ whose ‘combative emails to social media corporations have grow to be a part of a Republican-led federal court docket case and a congressional investigation.’… The federal court docket case is Missouri v. Biden, a landmark COVID-era case involving authorities censorship of social media. Discovery within the case introduced revelations that the Biden White Home and different Biden administration officers, working with outdoors activist teams, ‘held biweekly conferences with tech corporations over the best way to curb the unfold of misinformation in the course of the pandemic,’ with Flaherty ‘in fixed contact with social media executives,’ within the phrases of the Wall Avenue Journal editorial web page…. An essential reality to recollect is that Flaherty and his colleagues weren’t simply concentrating on misinformation. Lots of the postings they sought to ban have been “scientifically debatable,” within the Wall Avenue Journal’s phrases. . And now Flaherty has a brand new position on the Biden 2024 marketing campaign.” • Flaherty acquired a promotion! That’s good. (Fascinating to think about that the efforts described in Missouri v. Biden are the PMC’s operational definition of “scientific communication.”

“Hunter Biden Artwork Purchaser Advocated for Her Grandniece’s Launch From Hamas Captivity” [RealClearInvestigations]. “The American kidnap sufferer launched by the terrorist group Hamas throughout its ongoing ceasefire with Israel is a great-niece of Elizabeth Hirsh Naftali, a serious Democratic social gathering donor who paid handsomely for Hunter Biden’s artwork and received an appointment to a plum cultural put up from President Biden…. Whereas noting that the Biden administration has labored with Qatari and Egyptian mediators to free all of the hostages, a senior administration official advised RealClearInvestigations that ‘U.S. officers insisted that Abigail be included on an early checklist in addition to the opposite two Individuals on this class [of women and children].’ ‘The President raised Abigail in almost all of his cellphone calls with counterparts in addition to with the Amir of Qatar on Saturday,’ the official stated, including that ‘U.S. officers have additionally remained in shut contact with Abigail’s relations together with these the President spoke with on Sunday,’ the day Abigail was returned from Gaza to Israel…. Republican Home members have been investigating attainable connections between Hirsh Naftali’s artwork shopping for and her authorities appointment to the U.S. Fee for the Preservation of America’s Heritage Overseas since July. In a letter that month to Hirsh Naftali, Oversight Committee chairman James Comer of Kentucky stated, ‘Your place on the Fee is especially suspicious due to Hunter Biden’s earlier actions to raise his enterprise companion—Eric Schwerin—to the identical put up whereas his father was Vice President.’” • Beautiful. An affordable grift, proper in the course of a hostage negotiation. ‘Twas ever thus?

“Biden’s polling is in additional harmful territory than Obama’s in 2011” [NBC]. “There’s one massive drawback with all of the speak evaluating President Joe Biden’s standing within the 2023 polls with Barack Obama’s in 2011. Biden’s present numbers are in additional harmful territory for an incumbent than Obama’s ever have been at this similar cut-off date. For one factor, Obama held a constant lead over GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney within the polls — minus just a few exceptions instantly after the debt-ceiling disaster — till that first general-election debate…. What’s extra, our similar November 2011 ballot had Obama forward of a generic Republican, versus our November 2023 ballot displaying Biden trailing a generic Republican by double digits.”

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“High Ramaswamy aide leaves to hitch Trump marketing campaign” [CNN]. “Brian Swensen formally resigned from his position as nationwide political director for the Ramaswamy marketing campaign over the weekend and has joined the Trump marketing campaign, a supply accustomed to his departure advised CNN. Swensen is predicted to be engaged on the marketing campaign’s political operation within the early-voting states, particularly in Nevada, two Trump marketing campaign sources advised CNN. Swensen’s departure is the most recent indicator of Ramaswamy’s stagnating marketing campaign, which has struggled to achieve momentum even because the candidate carefully aligns himself with Trump, the front-runner for the 2024 GOP nomination. Earlier this month, Brandon Goodyear, the Ramaswamy staff’s videographer, stepped away from the marketing campaign, a supply accustomed to the departure advised CNN.” • So, videographers are main indicators?

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“DeSantis to debate California Gov. Gavin Newsom tonight” [Axios]. • Can’t they each lose?

“Haley and DeSantis are relying extra on outdoors marketing campaign teams with time working out to cease Trump” [Associated Press]. “Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley are more and more outsourcing central elements of their campaigns, drawing on the rising urgency of Donald Trump opponents to discover a single different to the previous president. Struggling to energise his marketing campaign, DeSantis this week privately inspired his donor community to help a newly fashioned tremendous PAC that’s taking up promoting obligations. That’s after a management shakeup on the pro-DeSantis tremendous PAC that for months has been dealing with the majority of each his promoting and his get-out-the-vote operation. On the similar time, Haley’s self-described ‘scrappy’ political marketing campaign, which has by no means loved the identical degree of funding or manpower as DeSantis’ operation, received the help of the the Koch community, the biggest conservative grassroots group within the nation. By week’s finish, scores of Koch-backed activists are anticipated to start advocating on Haley’s behalf on the doorsteps of tens of 1000’s of Republican main voters. The extraordinary reliance on unbiased teams for the 2 Republicans who more and more look like Trump’s closest challengers is testing the sensible and authorized limits of modern-day presidential campaigns.”

“Nikki Haley’s home-state technique faces a hitch: South Carolina is Trump nation” [NBC]. “Nikki Haley sees her house state as a launchpad. It might grow to be her marketing campaign’s crash web site…. Thus far, she hasn’t made the sale. That’s at the very least partly as a result of Haley has but to present voters a cause to desert Trump — the dominant political determine within the state for nearly a decade — a recurring theme that emerged in interviews with virtually two dozen Republican voters, present and former elected officers, county social gathering chairs and Republican strategists. The identical could be stated for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the remainder of a discipline that Trump leads by greater than 30 share factors in current polls of the state’s Feb. 24 main…. Haley is trying to reconnect with voters who haven’t seen her on a poll since 2014. She hosted a well-attended city corridor assembly Monday in Beaufort, her first occasion within the state in virtually a month. It got here on the heels of Trump’s highly-publicized go to to Saturday’s marquee soccer recreation between the College of South Carolina and Clemson, a free media bonanza for the previous president. Despite the fact that Trump obtained a mixture of cheers and jeers, the dueling appearances served as a reminder of his potential to dam out the solar — or the state’s favourite daughter — at a second’s discover. For Haley to win, she’ll need to sway a big portion of voters who discover her interesting though they presently again Trump.” • I maintain coming as much as stature. Love Trump or hate him, he appears constructed to a unique scale, even a gargantuan one.

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“Scoop: No Labels abandons its in-person presidential conference” [Axios]. “No Labels — the bipartisan group plotting a third-party presidential bid — is pulling the plug on its Dallas conference subsequent spring and can as a substitute conduct its ‘choice course of just about,’ Axios has discovered… No Labels’ earlier plan was to make use of the interval between Tremendous Tuesday on March 5 and the Dallas conference that had been set for April 14-15 to take heed to supporters after which make a closing determination on whether or not to launch a third-party ticket.” • So that they’re pushing the choice off, placing them on the volatility aspect of the steadiness v. volatility dichotomy.

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“West says third social gathering critics have ‘good cause to be afraid’” [The Hill]. “Impartial presidential candidate Cornel West stated Tuesday critics of a third-party ticket have a ‘good cause to be afraid.’ ‘I feel they’ve good cause to be afraid as a result of anyone who desires to talk the reality, when you’ve a regime in energy that denies the reality, anyone who seeks justice, who runs away from justice, they must be afraid,’ West stated on Fox Information on Tuesday. ‘However that’s for the Republican Occasion and that’s for the Democratic Occasion.’”

2020 Submit Mortem

“Court docket submitting reveals Rep. Scott Perry’s huge internet of contacts in bid to reverse 2020 election” [Politico]. “The newly disclosed paperwork reveal a rare internet of communications between Perry, who’s now the chair of the Home Freedom Caucus, and key figures in Trump’s orbit…. the exchanges with DOJ’s [Jeff] Clark — described in Smith’s federal indictment of Trump as one in all six unnamed and unindicted co-conspirators in an effort to subvert the 2020 election — are maybe probably the most revealing. Clark, then a low-profile determine who oversaw the Justice Division’s civil litigation within the closing months of the presidential time period, was launched to Trump by Perry amid Trump’s effort to stay in workplace. Trump got here near appointing Clark as performing lawyer common within the early days of 2021 earlier than backing down amid a mass resignation risk by senior DOJ and White Home officers. Throughout this time, Clark pressured high DOJ officers to ship a letter to state legislatures urging them to contemplate sending alternate slates of presidential electors to Congress, and he obtained a safety clearance to evaluation intelligence about potential international efforts to intrude within the election. Perry indicated in a single newly disclosed alternate that Trump had personally authorised a ‘presidential safety clearance,’ a remark that adopted Clark asking Perry to make sure that Trump was conscious that CIA Director Gina Haspel wanted to produce him with ‘safety clearance tickets’ to entry intelligence associated to the 2020 election.’” And: “Lots of the paperwork related to the case had been stored underneath seal. However on Wednesday, the D.C. Circuit unsealed them — together with a decrease court docket’s opinion that described and quoted from a big quantity of the very textual content messages that Smith has been looking for. By Wednesday night, the unsealed opinion appeared to have been faraway from the court docket’s public docket, suggesting it could have been posted inadvertently.” • Oops?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not completely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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“Hollywood Goes Dwelling: How Movie star Endorsements Are Serving to Dems Win Down Poll” [The Messenger]. “In cities throughout the nation, there may be that individual – the child who made it massive, starred in some films, grew to become an motion hero, possibly even received some awards. What if that individual advised you about an upcoming native election? Or a candidate who it is best to take into account supporting? They’re well-known, certain, however they’re greater than that: They’re your city’s well-known individual, somebody with native credibility as a result of they know what it’s prefer to develop up the place you probably did. That’s the speculation behind The Hometown Mission, an progressive effort that appears to pair celebrities with candidates for state legislature, college board, or different native places of work from the areas they grew up in. The objective is to make use of their native superstar to extend voter engagement, educate voters on the upcoming election, and help Democratic candidates in usually missed and underfunded campaigns. The speculation is easy: The Hometown Mission works with native organizations to search out aggressive races in key states, then makes use of its community to ask celebrities from these areas to tape brief movies both urging individuals to vote or endorsing a particular candidate. The group then runs these movies as digital adverts focused to key voters within the district it’s trying to win.”• What is is with “progressives” and celebrities?

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Anthony Fauci to Testify in Home on Covid-19 Pandemic’s Origins, U.S. Response” [Wall Street Journal]. “The preparations for Fauci’s testimony are in depth. They’ll start with two days of transcribed interviews behind closed doorways in January. A public listening to, which is predicted to be contentious, shall be held at a later date…. In a letter to Fauci at this time, Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R., Ohio), chairman of the Choose Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, stated the committee and Fauci’s staff had agreed Fauci would give a transcribed interview on Jan. 8 and 9 for seven hours every day. The letter states that two authorities attorneys and two private attorneys can accompany Fauci at these periods, which received’t be public. The date for the general public listening to hasn’t but been set. Wenstrup and different Home Republicans, citing e-mail exchanges, have charged that Fauci labored with different scientists to minimize the opportunity of a lab leak in a seminal March 2020 scientific article, “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2,” within the journal Nature Drugs.” • And the spooks labored proper alone with Fauci (stated Kristian Andersen; too lazy to search out the hyperlink). I ponder if they are going to be questioned too? Or whether or not Fauci will attempt to drag them in?


“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

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Covid is Airborne

Novid success:

Takes self-discipline.


I’m all for probiotics, garlic, ginger, and many others., however holy moley! #CovidIsAirborne!

Some air flow individuals actually must evangelize the Mommy Blogs…..

“Routine Masks Sporting as A part of COVID-19 Management in Japan: An Evaluation Utilizing the Self-Report Behavior Index” [Behavioral Sciences]. N = 2640. “Though the Japanese authorities eliminated mask-wearing necessities in 2023, comparatively excessive charges of masks carrying have continued in Japan. We aimed to evaluate psychological causes and the power of routine masks carrying in Japan…. A regression evaluation examined the affiliation between psychological causes and the frequency of masks carrying. The routine use of masks was assessed within the participant’s most continuously visited indoor house and public transport utilizing the self-report behavior index. The principal part evaluation with varimax rotation revealed distinct routine traits. Among the many 2640 members surveyed from 6 to 9 February 2023, solely 4.9% reported not carrying masks in any respect. Conformity to social norms was crucial cause for masks. Individuals exhibited a barely greater diploma of habituation in the direction of masks carrying on public transport in comparison with indoor areas. The mask-wearing fee was greater in females than in males, and no important distinction was recognized by age group. Day by day masks carrying in indoor areas was characterised by two traits (automaticity and behavioral frequency). A excessive mask-wearing frequency has been maintained in Japan in the course of the social reopening transition interval. Masks carrying has grow to be part of each day behavior, particularly on public transport, largely pushed by computerized and frequent apply.”

Immune Dysregulation

“What we learn about threat of a ‘triple-demic’ this respiratory virus season” [National Post]. “One current research urged COVID-19 infections might have been a driving drive for the 2022 surge in RSV infections amongst youngsters 5 and underneath, presumably due to the consequences of SARS-CoV-2 on a toddler’s immune and respiratory techniques.” • Remarkably, no point out of so-called “immunity debt.”

Testing and Monitoring

A really lengthy thread on testing:

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most definitely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with character adjustments therefrom.

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Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, November 27:

Lambert right here: Case counts transferring neatly upward (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was making an attempt to hide once they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).

Regional knowledge:

That Midwest near-vertical curve is regarding, though as ever with Biobot it’s important to look ahead to backward revisions.

• “CDC revamps wastewater COVID knowledge reporting” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. “The Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) lately unveiled new wastewater knowledge monitoring dashboard to make it simpler to trace native and nationwide traits, even by variant. Wastewater monitoring is likely one of the early indicators well being officers use to gauge the exercise of SARS-CoV-2 and different viruses. Known as the Nationwide Wastewater Surveillance Program [NWSS], the principle web page says that, nationally, wastewater viral exercise of COVID is excessive. On Twitter (X), Niall Brennan, MPP, senior adviser to the CDC’s director, stated the makeover was accomplished over a 4-week interval by a staff informally known as “Poo’s Clues.” He added that the objective was to reimagine the best way to current the info and enhance the visualizations, which have been beforehand underwhelming. Wastewater monitoring customers can now see nationwide traits in 1-year, 6-month, and 45-day increments and study regional and native traits. The brand new portal additionally has maps displaying wastewater viral exercise ranges and exhibits shifts in variants over time. ‘It was enjoyable and quick paced and my because of the unbelievable staff at CDC who willingly ripped up the rule guide within the course of of constructing this unbelievable useful resource extra accessible to a wider viewers. Way more to return!,’ Brennan stated.” • Hopefully. CDC being CDC, the previous wastewater web page doesn’t confer with the brand new. Confusingly, CDC being CDC, the principle NWSS web page (up to date November 29) has a near-useless chart (evaluate to BioBot’s). I’ll begin with the nationwide knowledge, then regional (Midwest, as a result of ranges are excessive there), then Minnesota. I’ve helpfully annotated and added notes to every chart. On the nationwide degree:

“Close to ineffective,” as I stated. NOTES [1] “FromDB”? Who let that slip by way of? [2] The colour scale doesn’t appear to narrate to something. [3] The chart truncates the course of the pandemic, starting solely in January 2022, which is flat-out ridiculous.

The clickthrough regional web page chart (up to date November 25) is extra helpful, and exhibits the regarding spike within the Midwest:

NOTES [1] There isn’t any coloration scale. The nationwide and regional charts needs to be constant. [2] “Choose a geography” isn’t English; exchange with “Choose a area.” Additionally, clarify which area, utilizing (one assumes) the identical terminology because the CDC variant chart.

The second degree of clickthrough (up to date November 25), for nationwide, state, and regional knowledge, is much more helpful, and exhibits a actually regarding near-vertical in Minnesota:

NOTES [1] The grey shading is an efficient characteristic! [2] Presumably an indirect reference to the Biobot lawsuit. [3] There isn’t any Stage indicator (“Excessive”, or no matter), whether or not accompanied by a coloration scale or not.

Lambert right here, total feedback: (1) Three clickthroughs is dumb. Consolidate to 1 chart on the principle web page. (2) Institutionally, it seems to be like three groups have been at work, one per chart, and their work was incompletely built-in, as proven by inconsistencies within the Stage indicators and coloration scale, and the huge typo on the nationwide chart. So no matter org chart debacle produced that consequence needs to be fastened. (3) The cadence with which the info is refreshed is nowhere documented. (4) Regional names needs to be in line with CDC variants, e.g. (5) “All Outcomes” (nationwide chart) ought to imply simply that: Knowledge for your entire course of the pandemic (so combine the [family-blogging] Biobot knowledge ffs, if that’s what it takes). As issues stand, it seems to be like CDC is making an attempt to erase the primary two years of the pandemic — together with the Biden Administration’s huge Omicron spike — and that’s not a great look. (Additionally, I checked the Verily web site, and it appears as horrid as ever. Maybe they have been a part of the CDC NWSS growth staff, I don’t know.)


NOT UPDATED From CDC, November25:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, however BA.2.86 arising quick on the surface.

From CDC, November 11:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of sick intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge shall be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 25:

Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater knowledge. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.

NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even moving into the standard of the wastewater websites that we have now as a proxy for Covid an infection total.

• Right here is a totally unserious evaluation from Mom Jones (you simply learn a severe evaluation [lambert blushes modestly]).


Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of November 30:

Up. Stage-ish, however I wager hospitalization drops over the vacation weekend. Let’s wait and see. New York state as an entire seems to be extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least. November 18:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?


NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, November 27:

0.4%. Up. (It could be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and acquired examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, November 25:

Lambert right here: Improve (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, November 6:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, November 6:

BA.2.86 coming alongside properly.


Whole: 1,183,664 – 1,183,455 = 209 (209 * 365 = 76,285 deaths per 12 months, at this time’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would really like, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission completed” for this specific tranche of loss of life and illness). 

Lambert right here: This quantity is just too small it doesn’t matter what. Iowa Covid19 Tracker hasn’t been up to date since September 27, 2023. I could need to revert to CDC knowledge. Yech.

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED The Economist, November 18:

Lambert right here: Gonna need to whack this, too. How does an automatic mannequin not replace? Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of Individuals submitting for unemployment advantages rose by 7,000 to 218,000 within the week ending November twenty fifth, a rise from the revised variety of 211,000 reported within the earlier week however barely beneath market expectations of 220,000. In the meantime, persevering with claims surged by 86,000 to 1.927 million within the prior week, marking the very best degree since November 2021 and hinting at a softening labor market. ”

Private Earnings: “United States Private Earnings” [Trading Economics]. “Private revenue in america elevated 0.2% month-over-month in October 2023, the least in 4 months, and matching market forecasts.”

* * *

Tech: Zuckerberg is not a pleasant individual in any respect:

Tech: “Google to pay Canada’s ‘hyperlink tax,’ drops risk of eradicating information from search” [Ars Technica]. “Google has agreed to pay Canadian information companies $100 million a 12 months to adjust to the nation’s On-line Information Act, regardless of beforehand saying it will take away Canadian information hyperlinks from search quite than make the required funds. Google and authorities officers agreed to a deal that lets Google negotiate with a single information collective and cut back its total monetary obligation. Fb proprietor Meta is in the meantime holding agency in its opposition to funds. ‘Google will contribute $100 million in monetary help yearly, listed to inflation, for a variety of stories companies throughout the nation, together with unbiased information companies and people from Indigenous and official-language minority communities,’ Minister of Canadian Heritage Pascale St-Onge stated in an announcement at this time. The $100 million in Canadian foreign money is price about $74 million in US foreign money. Earlier than at this time’s deal, the federal authorities estimated that Google must pay $172 million a 12 months.” • Chump change! What Google needs to be paying is regardless of the newspaper trade made earlier than Google gutted it.

* * *

At present’s Worry & Greed Index: 64 Greed (earlier shut: 63 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 66 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 30 at 1:32:29 PM ET.

Information of the Wired

“On Pneumatic Tires” [Scope of Work]. “The invention of the wheel is commonly put ahead as a pinnacle of human ingenuity, nevertheless it strikes me that the defining attribute of contemporary transportation techniques isn’t the wheel however the pneumatic tire. In america, autos with tires carry twice as a lot freight as autos with out them. Tires have an outsized position in particular person transportation: The overwhelming majority of Individuals commute on tires, outweighing all different modes by about fourteen to 1. Tires are on our lawnmowers, these iconic symbols of twentieth-century middle-class independence, they usually’re on our e-scooters, maybe the zenith of twenty-first century globalization and consumerism. The tire’s meteoric rise may need stunned nineteenth-century observers of the wheel, which took millennia to penetrate (and form) human tradition. Wheels emerged in varied varieties between 3000 and 4000 BCE. But even regardless of its apparent utility, wheeled transportation remained costly, uncomfortable, and comparatively uncommon properly into the early trendy interval. Richard Bulliet writes that as late as 1570, the variety of four-wheeled carriages in Britain ‘might be counted on one hand,’ and even in 1814 there was just one carriage for each 145 British inhabitants. By comparability, at this time Britain has about one automotive for each 1.6 individuals – and roughly half of Brits personal or have entry to a bicycle. Wrapped in leather-based and riveted to an iron ‘tyre,’ the primary pneumatic tire happened fifteen years earlier than the velocipede – the primary broadly profitable bicycle. The tire was patented, evaluated positively by engineers, after which promptly forgotten. The recognition of bikes, automobiles, and wheeled transportation usually has a lot to do with the tire – and the recognition of the tire owes so much to bikes and automobiles.” • With the ability to repair punctures in my bicyle tires all on my own was an enormous step ahead in autonomy for me as a toddler (as was the bicycle itself, after all).

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Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SC:

SC writes: “Photograph taken within the drought stricken riparian woods of Buffalo Bayou in Memorial Park in the course of Houston, Texas. Edible and medicinal. Berries have a peppery, considerably bitter style.”

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