Home Economics 2:00PM Water Cooler 11/29/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/29/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/29/2023 | bare capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Tune of the Day

Southern Screamer, Reserva Pure Formosa, Formosa, Argentina. “Duetting, however more often than not one of many people calls. After 10:30 from starting of recording, each birds in flight.” Eleven minutes of the Southern Screamer. Additionally different birds and, I swear, a cow…

* * *


“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

“California struggles in addition Trump” [Politico]. “The window is narrowing to attempt to knock former President Donald Trump off California’s March 5 main poll…. One huge query looming over the push to take away Trump from the poll is the query of who has the authority. Can the highest elections officers in every state act unilaterally? Democratic secretaries of state throughout the nation, together with these in pivotal swing states like Arizona and Michigan, have largely been skeptical about attempting to exert that authority. However Weber hasn’t taken a definitive stance. Her workplace has repeatedly stated she is reviewing the problem…. Eleven Democrats within the California Meeting, led by Assemblymember Evan Low, despatched state Legal professional Basic Rob Bonta a letter final month urging him to make use of his authority to hunt an expedited state courtroom ruling. Low stated lawmakers are nonetheless urging Bonta to behave as a result of Trump ‘continues to be a transparent and current hazard to free and honest elections in america.’ Bonta hasn’t publicly responded to the lawmakers’ request. In the meantime, the clock is ticking.”

Biden Administration

“Scoop: Biden administration sending free COVID exams to varsities” [Axios]. “The Biden administration for the primary time will enable all colleges to order free COVID-19 exams from the federal authorities forward of the vacations, officers advised Axios first…. The Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), an company inside HHS, has a stockpile of a whole bunch of hundreds of thousands of COVID exams. It’s teaming up with the Division of Schooling to permit faculty districts to order exams on to distribute to households. HHS officers stated colleges might order exams at a price they may anticipate to distribute them, however they didn’t specify a restrict. “I might think about a state of affairs the place maybe a fifth grade classroom, it has a COVID-positive pupil after which they ship everybody dwelling with a COVID check within the backpack from that fifth grade class,” O’Connell stated.” • Testing on this situation is after the very fact. #CovidIsAirborne. How about sending some HEPA filters and N95s?

“Kamala Harris will attend the COP28 local weather summit in Dubai” [Boston Globe]. • Properly, that’s too dangerous. I had thought COP28 was essential.

“Probabilities dim for Senate vote on rail security invoice: Marketing consultant” [Freight Waves]. “Prospects for rail security laws in Congress to maneuver ahead within the waning weeks of 2023 seem dim, given different urgent nationwide points and even ‘psychological exhaustion’* amongst politicians, in line with a former U.S. Division of Transportation official who now heads a consulting agency. ;I feel the underside line is that it’s in all probability unlikely at this level that we’re gonna see any laws this yr. And subsequent yr — being an election yr — can be wanting fairly grim so far as prospects for the invoice,’ stated Loren A. Smith Jr., president of Skyline Coverage Threat Group, a analysis and consulting agency centered on the availability chain. Smith beforehand served as deputy assistant secretary for coverage at DOT.” • NOTE * Residing with Covid will try this.


Lower than a yr to go!

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“Closely redacted paperwork associated to look warrant for Trump’s Twitter account launched” [New York Post]. “The search warrant, issued in January in opposition to the corporate now referred to as X, was amongst a number of paperwork launched by the Justice Division Monday as a part of a lawsuit introduced by media organizations in search of daylight on the particular counsel’s investigation into Trump’s actions main as much as the Jan. 6, 2021, riot on the US Capitol.” To me, that is the attention-grabbing half. From the search warrant: “All info from the ‘Join’ or ‘Notifications’ tab for the account, together with all lists of Twitter customers who’ve favorited or retweeted tweets posted by the account, in addition to all tweets that embody the username related to the account (i.e. ‘mentions’ or ‘replies’), the warrant states.” • Right here is the warrant. Right here is the related passage:

Be aware that the warrant limits the seizure to “October 2020 to January 2021.” Nonetheless, if I retweeted a Trump tweet, I might get a go to from the Justice Division? In America? Actually?

“Trump Rallies Aren’t Even Actually About Politics at This Level” [Slate]. “For all of Donald Trump’s rhetorical improvements, character quirks, and alleged felony malfeasance, what has made him actually distinctive as a political determine is how a lot he has merged fan tradition with American politics. It’s commonplace for People to idolize presidents—Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama are nonetheless actively revered by many—however no different president has impressed the identical stage of merchandise strains or themed automotive flags. A MAGA bumper sticker usually isn’t merely a press release of loyalty; it’s a cultural signifier of neighborhood very similar to the dancing bear bumper sticker is for a Grateful Useless fan. Nowhere is that this extra clear than at Trump’s rallies. He’s turned his marketing campaign occasions into one thing that has extra in widespread with a Bruce Springsteen live performance than a Harry Truman whistle-stop tour. A late-November Trump rally in Fort Dodge, Iowa, was pretty much as good an instance of the style as any. Held in a fading blue-collar metropolis about 30 miles from the interstate, attendees began lining up for the rally early within the morning for the possibility to see Trump seem in a highschool health club embellished with banners celebrating victorious softball and bowling groups…. Trump has lengthy drawn a neighborhood of superfans referred to as ‘Entrance Row Joes’ who deal with his occasions with the identical regard that Deadheads used to deal with a stay present. Whereas Jim and Sandy Pamperin of St. Paul, Minnesota, weren’t fairly in that neighborhood—Sandy had been to a mere eight Trump rallies whereas Jim had solely been to 3, together with a canceled one in Iowa earlier this yr—it was nonetheless an essential occasion for them.”

“I Will Make America Nice Once more for Younger Individuals” [Donald Trump, Newsweek]. “A latest NBC Information ballot discovered that we’re main Biden 46 % to 42 % nationally amongst voters ages 18 to 34—a transparent signal that younger People are rejecting Joe Biden’s reign of failure, incompetence, and corruption. In the course of the first Trump administration, we created the strongest and most affluent financial system within the historical past of the world. Below my management, annual incomes went up by greater than $6,000, inflation was below 2 %, and we had gasoline right down to $1.87 per gallon. Family web price reached an all-time excessive, with the underside 50 % of American households seeing a 40 % improve of their web price. The U.S. financial system had by no means been higher for younger People, however for the previous three years, younger folks have borne the heavy prices of the failed Biden agenda: crippling inflation, hovering costs, skyrocketing rates of interest, unaffordable housing, and escalating crime. Over the course of the Biden administration, actual incomes have gone down by $7,400 per household. Gasoline costs reached as excessive as $7 a gallon in some locations. Cumulative inflation is eighteen %. And mortgage charges are pushing a brutal seven %—making dwelling possession out of attain for numerous younger People. Once I was in workplace, the 30-year mortgage price reached a document low of two.65 %—and the median-income American household might afford a mortgage. But due to Biden’s disastrous financial system, rates of interest have skyrocketed, making home-ownership out of attain for too many People, particularly younger People who in earlier generations could be trying to begin a household. Because of this, traditionally excessive numbers of younger individuals are delaying marriage and youngsters.” • Dunno who the ghostwriter is, however fairly good!

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“JPMorgan’s Dimon: Democrats ought to enhance Nikki Haley” [Politico]. “JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon urged Democrats to assist Nikki Haley within the GOP presidential main, arguing that she gives a robust different to former President Donald Trump. ‘When you’re a really liberal Democrat, I urge you to assist Nikki Haley, too. Give them a alternative on the Republican aspect that may be higher than Trump,’ Dimon, who leads the nation’s largest business financial institution, stated onstage on the 2023 DealBook Summit on Wednesday. Dimon has been speaking up Haley in latest weeks as the previous South Carolina governor has gained within the polls. Whereas she’s nonetheless trailing effectively behind Trump, she has received endorsements from an influential tremendous PAC backed by the Koch community and has began to fundraise with Wall Road heavyweights.” • Hey, nimrod: The State is believed to have relative autonomy from the capitalist class. Keep in your lane! (The opposite squillionaires, too, if it involves that.)

“Influential GOP donors are betting their hundreds of thousands on Haley in a brand new push to beat Trump” [CNN]. “The forty fifth president’s enemies on the precise are mustering for a remaining huge cash showdown designed to crush his hopes of a 3rd consecutive Republican nomination lower than 50 days earlier than voting begins within the GOP main race. Nikki Haley would be the lavishly funded vessel carrying the hopes of the influential community funded by billionaire Charles Koch and high industrial and company donors who suppose Donald Trump is a threat too far subsequent November.” • Not an empty vessel, one hopes….

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“How Arab American voters’ backlash might imperil Biden’s 2024 marketing campaign” [Axios]. “Arab American and Muslim American anger over President Biden’s dealing with of the Israel-Hamas battle could possibly be endangering his re-election within the majority of 2024 swing states. Michigan, Virginia, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania all have notable pockets of those populations. There aren’t dependable statistics on what number of are registered voters — however even tiny shifts of assist in any of those super-tight states that Biden received in 2020 might make a distinction…. An Axios assessment of 2020 leads to these essential states reveals that if even a sliver of the Arab American and Muslim American vote had been to remain dwelling or defect to Republicans, Biden could possibly be in a deep gap.” • Properly price a learn (and maybe the reason for Biden’s latest vibe shift).

“Hunter Biden is lastly going to face arduous questions from those that received’t ‘ask properly’” [New York Post]. “‘The Bidens are the perfect at doing precisely what the Chairman needs.’ These phrases from Hunter Biden to a Chinese language businessman got here on the peak of the alleged affect peddling by the Biden household. After years of delay and denials, the Home is about to substantiate precisely what the Bidens had been so good at doing … and what international figures needed a lot that they had been prepared to pay the Bidens hundreds of thousands. Hunter Biden is scheduled to look earlier than the Home Oversight Committee on Dec. 13 to reply questions on what’s alleged to be the biggest influence-peddling operation in historical past. Regardless of being subpoenaed, Hunter continues to be demanding situations for answering questions. His lawyer Abbe Lowell beforehand stated Hunter would testify solely when ‘the time is correct’ and is now saying that Hunter would testify in public, not the scheduled non-public session. Republicans rejected that demand.” • As certainly they need to!

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly individuals are really studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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Realignment and Legitimacy

“On the planet of sexual fetishes, crossing the political aisle is a kink” [WaPo]. “The Democrat, who works within the auto-insurance business, spoke on the situation of anonymity as a result of he fears his household discovering out about his fetish. He stated he found political fetishes on a BDSM social media web site a few years in the past. ‘A number of [the content] was liberals submitting to conservative Republicans or MAGA or being ‘red-pilled’ into supporting and worshiping Trump,’ he stated. He bought turned on, and it shocked him as a result of ‘,’ he stated. ‘Domination from a political occasion and a[n] ideology that I can’t tolerate, made it … far more of a turn-on.;…. Though he has a lot of fetishes, that is the one which he considers essentially the most excessive…. It’s not simply Democrats fantasizing about being dominated by Republicans. It typically works the opposite manner as effectively. A 60-year-old man, identified by his fetish persona Grasp Black Satyr Dragon Wolf, unexpectedly turned a political fetish dominant when a 22-year-old straight-identifying faculty pupil responded to his Craigslist advert in search of a BDSM associate. ‘I wish to be punished by an individual of coloration as a result of I voted for Donald Trump,’ the scholar wrote.” And: “Not like within the non-fetish world, the place most Biden and Trump supporters have few buddies who vote for the opposing candidate, within the fetish world, political opposites mingle. And in case you are into political fetishes you might change into, mockingly, extra open-minded to the opposing aspect’s views, in line with RightMakesMites. ‘. So in the event you’re sitting there, considering, ‘Oh, Trump has the solutions on all the things. How might anybody probably suppose in any other case?’ Properly, you’re not gonna be an excellent dom of a liberal,’ he stated.” • Wowsers. I dunno (and I’m recalling that liberal Democrats really dreamed about Trump…).


“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

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Covid is Airborne

“Examine: Air air purifier use at daycare centres lower youngsters’ sick days by a 3rd” [YLE]. “Use of air purifiers at two daycare centres in Helsinki led to a discount in sicknesses and absences amongst kids and workers, in line with preliminary findings of a brand new examine led by E3 Pandemic Response. Air purifiers of varied sizes and kinds had been positioned in two of town’s daycare centres throughout chilly and flu seasons. The preliminary outcomes from the primary yr of analysis are promising, in line with researcher Enni Sanmark, from HUS Helsinki College Hospital. ‘Youngsters had been clearly much less sick in daycare centres the place air purification gadgets had been used — down by round 30 %,’ Sanmark defined. The air purifiers had been modified at two daycare centres serving as a management within the experiment, with the intention to rule out the impact that potential epidemic fluctuations might have on the outcomes. The examine’s subsequent part will proceed till April. ‘We will analyse whether or not there have been solely decreases in flu-type sicknesses or whether or not using air purification might additionally assist scale back abdomen illnesses,’ Sanmark stated. On common, daycare centre-aged kids undergo 10-13 infectious sicknesses yearly, with every sickness lasting from one to 3 weeks, in line with the analysis.”


Variety phrases:

I distrust any type of glorification… however on the entire and on the common, I feel Browne’s bought it proper. Cf. Matt 10:22.

Immnune Dysregulation

“Affiliation of COVID-19 with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in kids aged 0–5 years within the USA in 2022: a multicentre retrospective cohort examine” [BMJ]. ” COVID-19 was related to a considerably elevated threat for RSV infections amongst kids aged 0–5 years in 2022. Related findings had been replicated for a examine inhabitants of kids aged 0–5 years in 2021. Our findings recommend that COVID-19 contributed to the 2022 surge of RSV instances in younger kids via the massive buildup of COVID-19-infected kids and the potential long-term hostile results of COVID-19 on the immune and respiratory system.” • Good factor we compelled all our kids again into poorly ventilated colleges, then….

“COVID-19 and Immune Dysregulation, a Abstract and Useful resource” [World Health Network]. From March, nonetheless germane. “The immune system is amazingly advanced consisting of T cells, B cells, antibodies, dendritic cells, platelets, and several other extra cell varieties. Every sort of cell can have quite a few subtypes….. Within the references hooked up we see that COVID-19 can have an effect on and harm, at the very least briefly, all of the facets and all of the cell sorts of the immune system. It seems to age elements of the immune system, which may be everlasting. We merely have no idea but. The consequences of COVID-19 are seen in T cells, B cells, dendritic cells, monocytes, and platelets, amongst different programs.”

“Trying to find a proof about why N.M. pediatric hospitals are overflowing” [Source NM]. ‘Tis a thriller! And the deck: “Nobody has dominated out that COVID leaves folks extra inclined to extreme an infection.” I ought to actually file this below propaganda: “Quite a few medical specialists [lol] have stated over the previous couple weeks that a part of the reason being that the general public well being measures New Mexico took in response to COVID made it so kids didn’t get uncovered to respiratory viruses as they usually would have. However in interviews with Supply New Mexico, an immunologist and an evolutionary biologist discover that rationalization to be incomplete, and a proof might embody the truth that COVID assaults the immune system, and like different respiratory viruses, makes an individual’s airways extra inclined to an infection.” • Fascinating to see the assault on public well being so open.


The “Pirola” clan:

An infection

“Spare me. In case you have a runny nostril, keep dwelling” [Sydney Morning Herald]. “The Uber driver coughed. A moist, sickly sound that performed on repeat each minute or so, sometimes punctuated by a loud sneeze. He was unmasked, and he’d requested me to close the rear window in order that mud didn’t get into the automotive. Frankly, I used to be extra involved with what was already inside it. Each cough made me flinch, and with each sneeze I reflexively touched the straps of my masks, to reassure myself that I used to be – as a lot as potential – protected.” • One would suppose that Uber might devise a company coverage to stop this form of factor. (Additionally, nevertheless, asymptomatic transmission is harmful, so maybe all Uber drivers ought to check….)


“New CDC life expectancy information reveals painfully gradual rebound from covid” [WaPo]. “The brand new numbers are clearly optimistic — in contrast with 2021. However the identical information present the dramatic, and protracted, impression of the pandemic. Between 2019 and 2021, life expectancy dropped 2.4 years, and the 2022 leap restored only one.1. years of that deficit. (Males misplaced 2.8 years in these first two years, and girls 2.1 years.)” And: “Life expectancy rose in a comparatively regular vogue for the entire twentieth century and the primary decade of the twenty first. However beginning in 2010, the nation entered a decade of stagnation on this key metric.” • Thanks, Obama!

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most definitely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with character adjustments therefrom.

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Elite Maleficence

Emily Oster was the winner of our very first “Sociopath of the Day” Award, in October 31, 2022. Now she’s within the information once more:

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• “#CovidIsntOver Developments As Covid-19 Hospitalizations Rise By 8.6%” [Forbes]. “[W]ithout any actual nationwide system in place for monitoring new Covid-19 instances, the U.S. is form of flying blind in relation to SARS-CoV-2 exercise. Since emergency room visits and hospitalizations have a tendency to return at the very least every week or two after folks have been contaminated, rises in such numbers imply that rises in SARS-CoV-2 exercise in all probability occurred two or possibly even three or 4 weeks prior. And it’s an entire lot tougher to stop an upswing that has already been occurring after the very fact, assuming that you simply don’t have a DeLorean automotive that serves as a time machine. Basing Covid-19 prevention insurance policies on hospitalizations and deaths alone could be form of like exhibiting folks a burnt down home and saying, ‘Do you suppose that we have to set up some fireplace extinguishers on this home?’” • Certainly.

Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, November 27:

Lambert right here: Case counts transferring well upward (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was attempting to hide once they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).

Regional information:

That Midwest near-vertical curve is regarding, though as ever with Biobot you need to look ahead to backward revisions.

• Lambert right here: I’ve checked out Verily’s slick new dashboard, and have some ideas. However not in the present day!


NOT UPDATED From CDC, November25:

Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, however BA.2.86 arising quick on the surface.

From CDC, November 11:

Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities lower by directors of ailing intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information will probably be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 25:

Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater information. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, regardless that CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.


Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of November 29:

Up. Stage-ish, however I guess hospitalization drops over the vacation weekend. Let’s wait and see. New York state as an entire seems extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least. November 18:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?


NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, November 27:

0.4%. Up. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, November 25:

Lambert right here: Improve (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, November 6:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, November 6:

BA.2.86 coming alongside properly.


Complete: 1,183,455 – 1,183,396 = 15 (15 * 365 = 5475 deaths per yr, in the present day’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission completed” for this specific tranche of dying and illness). 

Lambert right here: This quantity is just too small it doesn’t matter what. Iowa Covid19 Tracker hasn’t been up to date since September 27, 2023. I’ll need to revert to CDC information. Yech.

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED The Economist, November 18:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Company Income: “United States Company Income” [Trading Economics]. “Company income in america surged by 4.1% from the earlier quarter to $2.709 trillion within the third quarter of 2023, essentially the most in a single yr, and increasing the 0.5% improve from the earlier quarter…. Nonetheless, in comparison with the corresponding interval of the earlier yr, company income edged decrease by 1.7%.”

Wholesale Stock: “United States Wholesale Inventories” [Trading Economics]. “Wholesale inventories in america fell by 0.2% month-over-month in October 2023, following a downwardly revised 0.1% rise within the prior month and worse than market estimates of a 0.1% improve, preliminary estimates confirmed.”

Retail Stock: “United States Retail Inventories Ex Autos” [Trading Economics]. “Retail Inventories Ex Autos in america decreased by 0.9% over a month in October 2023, following a revised 0.4% fall within the prior month, preliminary estimates confirmed.”

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As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 66 Greed (earlier shut: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 66 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 29 at 12:11:04 PM ET.


“Causal proof that herpes zoster vaccination prevents a proportion of dementia instances” (preprint) [medRxiv]. A intelligent pure experiment. “To offer causal versus merely correlational proof on this query, we benefit from the truth that in Wales eligibility for the herpes zoster vaccine (Zostavax) for shingles prevention was decided primarily based on a person’s actual date of start. These born earlier than September 2 1933 had been ineligible and remained ineligible for all times, whereas these born on or after September 2 1933 had been eligible to obtain the vaccine. Through the use of country-wide information on all vaccinations obtained, main and secondary care encounters, dying certificates, and sufferers’ date of start in weeks, we first present that the proportion of adults who obtained the vaccine elevated from 0.01% amongst sufferers who had been merely one week too outdated to be eligible, to 47.2% amongst those that had been only one week youthful. Other than this massive distinction within the likelihood of ever receiving the herpes zoster vaccine, there isn’t a believable cause why these born only one week previous to September 2 1933 ought to differ systematically from these born one week later…. We then present that receiving the herpes zoster vaccine decreased the likelihood of a brand new dementia analysis over a follow-up interval of seven years by 3.5 share factors (95% CI: 0.6 – 7.1, p=0.019), equivalent to a 19.9% relative discount within the incidence of dementia.”

The Gallery



One other chaser:

Class Warfare

“People want an additional $11,400 in the present day simply to afford the fundamentals” [CBS]. “The standard American family should spend an extra $11,434 yearly simply to take care of the identical lifestyle they loved in January of 2021, proper earlier than inflation soared to 40-year highs, in line with a latest evaluation of presidency information…. Though inflation is cooling, many customers might not be feeling a lot reduction as a result of most costs aren’t declining (One main exception: gasoline costs, that are notoriously unstable and which have declined about 5% previously yr.) Customers are nonetheless paying extra, albeit at a slower tempo, on high of the upper costs that had been locked in when worth hikes surged in 2022 and earlier this yr.” • Costs don’t “surge” (observe lack of company). Costs rise as a result of companies increase them.

Information of the Wired

“The camel, the rope, and the needle’s eye” [Kiwi Hellenist]. Exegesis of Mark 10:25: “It’s simpler for a camel to undergo the attention of a needle than for somebody who’s wealthy to enter the dominion of God.” So: “In response to the parable, ‘camel’ is a misreading: initially, it was a ‘rope’ going via a needle. Nonetheless not possible, however not surreal like ‘camel’. Supposedly, the textual content initially had kamilos, however kamēlos ‘camel’ and kamilos ‘rope’ sounded the identical in imperial-era Greek, so that they bought combined up…. The manager abstract is that this: the phrase supposedly that means ‘rope’ was made up within the fifth century or shortly beforehand, and it was made up particularly to weaken Jesus’ condemnation of wealth.” • Vindication of Jesus as surrealist class warrior!

“My $500M Mars Rover Mistake: A Failure Story” [Chris LeWicki]. That is nice. “The heartbeat was despatched to the motor. As at all times, the consequence was quick, however this time, alarmingly unfamiliar. The strip chart didn’t appear like something we had seen earlier than. It didn’t even appear like a damaged motor. It was decidedly — one thing else. My thoughts raced for explanations and in what appeared like an instantaneous, arrived on the most definitely rationalization. My eyes adopted the wires from our breakout field on the check cart to the spacecraft, and the explanation for the unfamiliar sign landed like a dagger via my coronary heart. All that energy we simply launched didn’t go into the RAT-Revolve motor. As a consequence of a mistake I had made with the break-out-box, it went the opposite course on the connector interface, sending a surge of electrical energy straight into the spacecraft, as a substitute of the motor. Ooooohhhh ssshhhhiiiiitttt.” • However there’s a cheerful ending!

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Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From MG:

MG writes: “Went again to California for my sins for the one hundredth yr anniversary of my highschool, and noticed this tree within the automotive park of the resort (once more, I need to abjectly apologize for my poor digital camera work).” It’s true that the topic doesn’t must be within the heart. However, maybe this topic does!

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

When you hate PayPal, you’ll be able to electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on how one can ship a examine. Thanks!

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