Home Economics 2:00PM Water Cooler 11/24/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/24/2023 | bare capitalism

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2:00PM Water Cooler 11/24/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, I’m nonetheless recovering. This Water Cooler is usually Covid. So you’ve one thing to speak about with the household!

Chook Track of the Day

Western Home-Martin, Herdade da Mitra–Labor, Évora, Évora, Portugal. “Delichon urbicum with Passer domesticus and Turdus merula within the background.”

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Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Abortion

“Texas companies say abortion ban prices state practically $15 billion a yr” [KXAN]. ” Forty Texas corporations and enterprise leaders are coming into the struggle towards Texas’ abortion ban, submitting a short with the Texas Supreme Courtroom that argues the “ambiguity” within the legislation’s medical exceptions price the state an estimated $14.5 billion in misplaced income yearly. Austin-based courting app large Bumble is main the trouble, submitting an amicus temporary forward of the excessive courtroom’s arguments in Zurawski v. Texas…. Dozens of different corporations signed onto the temporary, together with South by Southwest, Zilker Properties, ATX Tv Pageant, and Central Presbyterian Church. The temporary cites analysis from the Institute for Ladies’s Coverage Analysis (IWPR) to reach at their declare that Texas’ abortion ban prices the state practically $15 billion yearly. They assert that the ban interprets to girls incomes much less, taking extra day off work, and leaving the workforce.”

2024

Lower than a yr to go!

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Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, in truth, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Get together reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Get together (ka-ching, however not completely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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“New York Metropolis Mayor Eric Adams Accused of Sexual Assault in Authorized Submitting (Unique)” [The Messenger]. “The plaintiff within the case, a lady whose identify is being withheld by The Messenger because of the nature of the allegation, filed a summons Wednesday evening in state Supreme Courtroom in Manhattan below the Grownup Survivors Act that names the Massive Apple Democrat as a defendant…. ‘Plaintiff was sexually assaulted by Defendant Eric Adams in New York, New York in 1993 whereas they each labored for the Metropolis of New York,’ the summons alleges. In New York civil courtroom, a plaintiff can file a summons with discover to start a authorized motion — adopted by a full criticism laying out the claims. The summons is simply three pages and doesn’t reveal any element concerning the alleged assault.”

“Democrats who swept Mothers For Liberty off faculty board struggle superintendent’s $700,000 exit deal” [Politics]. “A Pennsylvania faculty board that banned books, Satisfaction flags and transgender athletes slipped a last-minute merchandise into their remaining assembly earlier than leaving workplace, unexpectedly awarding a $700,000 exit package deal to the superintendent who supported their agenda. However the Democratic majority that swept the conservative Mothers For Liberty slate out of workplace hopes to dam the weird — they are saying unlawful — payout and convey calm to the Central Bucks Faculty District, whose prosperous suburbs and bucolic farms close to Philadelphia have been roiled by infighting for the reason that 2020 pandemic…. The district, with about 17,000 college students in 23 faculties, has spent $1.5 million on authorized and public relations charges amid competing lawsuits, discrimination complaints and investigations prior to now two years, together with a pending swimsuit over its suspension of a center faculty instructor who supported LGBTQ+ and different marginalized college students.”

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

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Search for the Helpers

Optimism (1):

From rural PA.

Optimism (2):

From Canada. FWIW, I’m beginning to have the identical sense. After all, this could possibly be my well-known Polyanna-esque disposition. Readers?

Maskstravaganza

Union nurses know what’s up:

A masks doesn’t must appear like a medical equipment:

So when are we going to see masks colorways from 3M?

Vaccines

“Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness towards post-covid-19 situation amongst 589 722 people in Sweden: inhabitants based mostly cohort research” [BMJ]. From the Dialogue: “On this massive register based mostly cohort research together with 589 722 residents from the 2 largest areas of Sweden, we discovered a powerful affiliation between vaccination earlier than first registered covid-19 and a decreased threat of receiving a analysis of [post-covid-19 condition (PCC)]. Within the research inhabitants, unvaccinated people had an nearly fourfold increased proportion of PCC diagnoses in contrast with those that had been vaccinated earlier than an infection (1.4% v 0.4%). We discovered a vaccine effectiveness towards PCC of 58% for any dose inside the main vaccination collection (ie, the primary two doses and the primary booster dose administered inside the really helpful schedule) given earlier than a primary registered an infection. Vaccine effectiveness elevated with every dose within the collection: 21% for one dose, 59% for 2 doses, and 73% for 3 or extra doses.” And: ” In the course of the research interval, the obtainable vaccines in Sweden included BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), AZD1222 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen/Johnson & Johnson), and NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax).” • PCC, like PASC, is one more acronym for “Lengthy Covid.”

Dysregulation

Dysregulation as a result of what else?

“China says no ‘uncommon or novel pathogens’ detected in influenza-like sickness upsurge: WHO [WION]. “‘Chinese language authorities suggested that there was no detection of any uncommon or novel pathogens or uncommon medical shows, together with in Beijing and Liaoning, however solely the aforementioned basic enhance in respiratory diseases because of a number of identified pathogens,’ the WHO mentioned in an announcement.”

“Baby hospitalizations soar throughout China one yr after the lifting of Zero-COVID” [WSWS]. “It isn’t but clear what pathogen or pathogens are chargeable for the deluge of kid hospitalizations, however authorities experiences are stating that the first an infection spreading has been mycoplasma pneumoniae, in addition to influenza, adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. There may be additionally hypothesis that the spike in hospitalizations could possibly be attributable to the truth that mycoplasma pneumoniae is buying resistance to the macrolides class of antibiotics. In recent times, China has skilled a higher diploma of antibiotic resistance than most nations, with experiences that Zithromax, essentially the most broadly prescribed macrolide within the nation, is now ineffective in as much as 80 % of kids. Lastly, there are additionally issues {that a} harmful novel pathogen or influenza, A/H9N2 (chicken flu), might unknowingly be spreading because of insufficient public well being surveillance in China. The potential for H9N2 circulating was raised by Epiwatch, an Australia-based synthetic intelligence-driven pandemic early warning system, which detected experiences of attainable H9N2 infections.” • Commentary:

Censorship and Propaganda

“‘Immunity debt’ is a misguided and harmful idea” [Financial Times]. From 2022, nonetheless germane: “The dialogue swirling round immunity debt exhibits how straightforward it’s for a plausible-sounding principle to flow into as misinformation. On this case, misinformation dangers selling the unfounded assertion that infections are clinically helpful to kids, in addition to feeding the revisionist narrative that Covid measures did extra hurt than good…. Professor Peter Openshaw, a respiratory physician and immunologist who research RSV and flu at Imperial Faculty London, says the present ‘excessive and unseasonal’ RSV wave is assumed to be a results of lockdowns inflicting ranges of immunity to wane in kids, dad and mom and carers, paving the best way for a higher variety of infections. However to border this as an immunity debt, Openshaw warns, mistakenly suggests ‘that immunity is one thing we have to spend money on, and that by defending ourselves from an infection we’re increase a deficit that has in the end to be repaid. This might not be a superb message for public well being: .’…. However there isn’t any proof that a person is worse off for having prevented earlier an infection. ‘Immunity debt as a person idea will not be recognised in immunology,’ Dunn-Walters says. ‘ and, if something, the alternative is the case.’ The fixed onslaught of widespread pathogens akin to cytomegalovirus, she provides, means the immune system begins to malfunction and slacken with age. She rejects the concept an infection is someway good for well being, saying vaccination is a far safer means of constructing inhabitants immunity.” • I bear in mind after I first encountered the time period and tried to trace it down; for me, the path ended with some random physician within the UK. First, the time period was nowhere, then it was all over the place, precisely like “delicate” when that physician from South Africa referred to as Omicron “delicate.” I want I might give an account of the unfold of those faulty, harmful notions that quickly turn into folks knowledge; not social media, I believe. Anyhow, right here is that this false idea being deployed in China–

“China’s spike in respiratory illnesses because of ‘immunity hole’” [Global Times]. • No, it’s actually not. Extra examples:

Transmission

I saved looking for this earlier than Thanksgiving, however right here it’s, too late:

Nonetheless, in time for Christmas!

“Polio is getting ready to eradication. Right here’s the right way to maintain it from coming again” [Nature]. “Just one human illness has up to now been declared eradicated: smallpox, in 1980. Polio has been extra advanced, says David Heymann, who heads the WHO’s Containment Advisory Group. That’s due to a key distinction: each smallpox an infection produces signs, however polio can silently infect as much as 1,000 individuals earlier than inflicting a case of paralysis. The opposite snag is that polio could be induced not solely by the wild virus, but additionally, in very uncommon circumstances, by the vaccines deployed to forestall it. Eradication means eliminating each varieties for good. The primary device is vaccination. Industrialized, polio-free nations use an inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), which doesn’t stop the virus infecting the physique and being shed in stools, however does defend towards paralysis. Offered that immunization ranges with IPV stay excessive and sanitation is sweet, a rogue poliovirus will in all probability peter out, in accordance with Concepcion Estivariz, a polio researcher on the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia. However as a result of the inactivated vaccine can’t block transmission, kids in at-risk nations nonetheless obtain one other sort: an oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) that comprises an attenuated type of the stay virus, and may cease polio’s unfold — which is essential for eradication. It’s additionally cheaper and simpler to ship than IPV, which is run by injection. The oral marketing campaign has been massively profitable. Since 1988, the International Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) estimates it has prevented 20 million circumstances of polio paralysis.” • Loopy speak. We have to maintain infecting kids with polio to toughen up their immune methods.

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost definitely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with persona adjustments therefrom.

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Elite Maleficence

“Offline: ‘Laughing on the Italians’” [The Lancet]. “A former minister for well being in England wrote to me that “The COVID-19 inquiry will make us the laughing inventory within the eyes of the world.” However it’s worse than that. The extent of prison incompetence uncovered by current witnesses to the UK COVID-19 Inquiry, chaired by Baroness Heather Hallett, has confirmed that . Amid the claims of utmost misogyny, profanity, and chaos that litter the proof is a narrative of full authorities breakdown.” • Learn the entire thing for the horrifying element. After all, the Brits are pikers. We’ve killed over 1,000,000!

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Lambert right here: A lot of new outcomes Wednesday, most up, beginning with wastewater. (The one I fear about essentially the most is ER visits, since I believe that knowledge is tough to sport, and who desires to go to the ER, anyhow?) I believe it’s time to ship the kin these clippings you saved on mind injury (additionally, after all, the 2022 clippings: right here, right here. And the 2020 one). And escape the Corsi-Rosenthal bins on the household gathering!

Case Information

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, November 20:

Lambert right here: Instances up, simply in time for Thanksgiving (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was attempting to hide after they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).

Regional knowledge:

In every single place!

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, November 11:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, October 28:

Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of ailing intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 18:

Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater knowledge. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, no less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, although CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of November 23:

Positively up. New York state as a complete seems to be extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, no less than. November 11:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, November 20:

0.5%. Decline arrested. (It might be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and received examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, November 11:

Lambert right here: Enhance (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, October 30:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers, October 30:

Deaths

Whole: 1,183,379 – 1,183,227 = 152 (152 * 365 = 55,480 deaths per yr, right this moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would love, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must resolve that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of dying and illness). 

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED The Economist, November 18:

Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

There aren’t any officals statistics of curiosity right this moment.

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Right this moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 68 Greed (earlier shut: 67 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 58 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 24 at 1:02:01 PM ET.

The Gallery

Les Nabis: Portray “is basically a flat floor lined with colours assembled in a sure order”:

Be that’s it could, this makes me consider a mom wanting in on her youngster, from the kid’s perspective.

Class Warfare

“Greyhound stations are leaving downtowns after sale to infamous funding agency” [Axios]. “Greyhound bus stations nationwide are closing and relocating outdoors central enterprise districts after being acquired by an funding agency that rose to infamy for its acquisition and gutting of American newspapers. Greyhound has lengthy been the model most carefully related to intercity bus journey in america. Its stations, usually architecturally and culturally important, occupy prime downtown actual property that’s thought-about ripe for business and residential growth. However Greyhound’s passengers, who are usually youthful and lower-income than different vacationers, now should wait at improvised outside pickup areas or journey to much less handy areas to catch their bus.”

“The Origins and Significance of “Id Economics’” [Institute for New Economic Thinking]. From 2021, nonetheless germane. Rachel Kranton: “So once more, simply to speak about how identification economics can perceive the phenomena that you just’re describing, a normal mannequin would say, individuals are all in favour of data, they’re all in favour of data that may assist them make the right resolution. That’s what customary mannequin would do. Once we introduce identification, you’re a one that is perhaps in search of data that confirms your understanding of who you’re, not essentially what to purchase on the grocery retailer or whether or not or not try to be getting a vaccine. You’re in search of data, otherwise you’re extra receptive to data that helps you preserve a way of who you’re after which who you’re inside your group. So let’s get again to {that a} second, is that what we get in these a number of equilibrium fashions if we had been to broaden it, is that there’s one set of people who find themselves carrying black shirts, as all of us appear to be doing on the display, there could possibly be one other set of people that all carrying white shirts. After which the black shirt individuals don’t just like the white shirt individuals. After which you may have the reinforcing of those divisions inside the society. And to go one step additional than that’s what identification economics mannequin would inform us to do, is have a look at how individuals discuss these divisions. And once more in a normal mannequin, what individuals say about issues, like individuals similar to black shirts or individuals similar to white shirts, however in our understanding, no, it’s really significant what individuals say about carrying a white shirt or carrying a black shirt. And so the entire dialogue about tastes and about preferences, that turns into a part of economics. And naturally it drives an enormous quantity of financial exercise, is the dialogue over what’s appropriate, what’s incorrect, the financial exercise is simply individuals exercise. Then individuals do issues, they take actions to exert effort to affect the best way different individuals take into consideration issues and the tastes that they undertake, the issues that they purchase and so forth, which then after all then turn into a part of who they’re and a part of these totally different communities and the way they perceive themselves.” • Dammit, one other guide to learn.

Information of the Wired

“How Gödel’s Proof Works” [Quanta]. • You’ll like this text if this text is the type of article you want.

“The Charming Doodles Charles Darwin’s Kids Left All Over the Manuscript of ‘On the Origin of Species’” [The Marginalian]. “For different little-known sides of Darwin’s humanity, see the story of his battle with nervousness, his good technique for dealing with critics, and his stunning letter of appreciation to his greatest buddy and best champion, then revisit his up to date John Ruskin on how drawing helps you see the world extra clearly.” • That is my favourite:

There are much more!

“A Type-of-Widespread, Very Unusual Cat Trick” [The Atlantic]. “Though the info are sparse, in a single restricted research from 1986 that surveyed pet house owners, practically 16 % of cats reportedly fetched. Delgado, who herself has three fetching cats—Ruby, Coriander, and Professor Scribbles—is now poring over a more recent and far bigger knowledge set, not but revealed, that means that the retrieving proportion is perhaps increased. (The methodology of the Eighties research might have additionally been wanting: ‘Fetch’ was listed as certainly one of a number of ‘tips’ that house owners reported of their cats, alongside ‘fascinating habits’ and ‘perceive all the things.’)” Appears legit. Extra: “Evolutionarily talking, that type of checks out. Fetching is only a sequence of 4 behaviors: wanting, chasing, grab-biting, and returning. Variations of the primary three are already constructed into predators’ traditional searching repertoire, says Kathryn Lord, an evolutionary biologist on the Broad Institute, who’s had her personal fetching cat. Returning is probably the wild card.” And: “[W]hen [Calvin] explicitly invitations me to play with him, I’m transported to part of his universe that feels particularly intimate. He’s selecting to have enjoyable but additionally expressing that he’d choose to do it with me. When Calvin drops his toys at my ft, he’s fairly actually bringing me a present.” • Awww!

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Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Carla:

Carla writes: “Alongside the Deschutes River close to Tumwater Falls, Olympia, WA.”

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