Home Economics 2:00PM Water Cooler 11/2/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/2/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/2/2023 | bare capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Track of the Day

Plain Mountain Finch, Lokat Bangus (Little Bangus Valley), Kupwara, Jammu and Kashmir, India. “A number of cuts of tune and one in every of what could also be calls, or presumably one other tune kind, from a fowl perched on a medium-height spruce tree simply above treeline.”

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“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

“Trump sues over efforts to maintain him off Michigan poll” [The Hill]. “Former President Trump’s attorneys have filed a lawsuit looking for to forestall Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson from refusing to place him on the poll for the state’s 2024 presidential major and normal elections. The lawsuit was filed Monday and asks the court docket to affirm that Benson (D) lacks the authority to resolve whether or not Trump will be disqualified from the poll beneath an interpretation of the 14th Modification. The lawsuit asks the court docket to enter an injunction stopping her from barring Trump from the poll…. Benson has mentioned she is not going to attempt to maintain Trump off the poll in Michigan. Trump’s attorneys mentioned the previous president has despatched Benson a letter asking her to substantiate him as one of many official candidates and that she has not responded to that letter.. The disagreement started after a lawsuit was filed by Free Speech for Individuals, the identical group that filed in Minnesota.”

“Minnesota justices seem skeptical that states ought to resolve Trump’s eligibility for the poll” [Associated Press]. “Minnesota Supreme Courtroom justices appeared skeptical Thursday that states have the authority to dam former President Donald Trump from the poll, with some suggesting that Congress is finest positioned to resolve whether or not his position within the January 2021 assault on the U.S. Capitol ought to forestall him from operating. Justices sharply questioned an legal professional representing Minnesota voters who had sued to maintain Trump off the state poll beneath the not often used ‘riot’ clause of the U.S. Structure. Citing Congress’ position in certifying presidential electors and its capability to question, a number of justices mentioned it appeared as if questions of eligibility needs to be settled there. ‘And people all appear to recommend there’s a elementary position for Congress to play and never the states due to that,’ Chief Justice Natalie E. Hudson mentioned. ‘It’s that interrelation that I believe is troubling, that implies that this can be a nationwide matter for Congress to resolve.’”

“Fascinating Standing Dispute in Fourteenth Modification Part 3 Case Towards Trump” [Reason]. From Castro v. Warner, a professional se Fourteenth Modification Submitting, the court docket writes: “In a number of filings, Mr. Castro has attacked the character or intelligence of opposing counsel, in addition to judges and court docket employees. The Courtroom’s docket is just not a social media feed, and any future submitting with advert hominem assaults, inappropriate statements about people concerned on this litigation, or different snide and malicious feedback will likely be stricken from the report.”

Biden Administration

“Israel-Gaza struggle: US Home rejects effort to censure Rashida Tlaib” [Al Jazeera]. “The US Home of Representatives has rejected an effort to censure Palestinian American Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat who has been advocating for Palestinian rights amid Israel’s struggle on Gaza. The measure, which was launched by far-right Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, was halted in a 222 to 186 vote on Wednesday, with 23 Republicans becoming a member of the Democrats in opposing it. A Democratic effort to in flip censure Greene was known as off in response.”

“31 Democrats vote to maintain Santos in Congress” [The Hill]. “A complete of 31 Democrats joined 182 Republicans in voting to maintain Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) in Congress on Wednesday, killing a Republican-led effort to oust the embattled lawmaker. The decrease chamber voted 213-179-19 towards a decision to expel Santos, marking the second unsuccessful try this yr to eject the first-term lawmaker from the Home. A two-thirds threshold is required to expel a member of Congress… The trouble to oust Santos was spearheaded by a gaggle of fellow first-term New York Republicans — led by Rep. Anthony D’Esposito — who moved final week to drive a vote to expel Santos within the wake of his mounting authorized battles. D’Esposito known as the laws to the ground as a privileged decision, a procedural gambit that forces management to set a vote inside two legislative days.” • Cf. John 8:7.


Time for the Countdown Clock!

Solely 4 extra days till a full yr to election day!

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“”Your Cash’s in Joe’s Home”: The Biden Household’s Model of ‘It’s a Fantastic Life’” [Jonathan Turley]. The headline is misleading; it doesn’t discuss with Joe Biden, however to the film It’s a Fantastic Life. Nonetheless. “What’s new now, in keeping with Home Republicans, is an rising sample of how the Bidens turned influence-peddling into the equal of the household’s private financial savings & mortgage operation. Cash transferring between key members of the family was labeled as a ‘mortgage’ in at the very least one occasion, and Hunter has claimed different cash as ‘loans’ — a framing that not solely supplied believable deniability however non-taxable earnings.Two IRS whistleblowers, who testified earlier than Home investigators in July, highlighted the usage of a mortgage allegedly to evade public disclosure and taxation. Hunter allegedly took giant funds from doubtful overseas sources and listed them as ‘loans,’ regardless of no proof of reimbursement or any normal mortgage settlement. This month, Home investigators found that, in 2018, the president’s brother James obtained two loans totaling $600,000 from Americore Well being, which they described as ‘a financially distressed and failing rural hospital operator.’ In keeping with the corporate’s chapter proceedings, it made the loans ‘based mostly upon representations that his final identify, ‘Biden,’ may ‘open doorways’” to new abroad traders. On the day he obtained the second mortgage switch, James Biden despatched a examine for a similar quantity — $200,000 — to Joe Biden as a ‘mortgage reimbursement.’ Lately, the Home Oversight Committee revealed that simply after Joe Biden introduced his 2020 presidential candidacy, Hunter Biden obtained a $250,000 mortgage from a Chinese language businessman utilizing the deal with of his father’s Delaware house. The beneficiant switch of funds was from Xiangsheng ‘Jonathan’ Li, a Chinese language businessman linked to the funding fund Bohai Harvest RST. (President Biden reportedly later wrote a college-admission suggestion for Li’s daughter). What occurred subsequent was classic Biden household: A Hollywood lawyer, who had simply met Hunter at a political gathering, reportedly abruptly took over the reimbursement of that mortgage, with no rationalization, and later reportedly paid for a few of Hunter’s tax payments and residing bills as nicely. So, it seems that $250,000 went to Hunter, however the mortgage obligation was shifted to a Democratic political donor.” • Good folks being good to one another!

“Arab American assist for Biden, Democrats plummets over Israel, ballot exhibits” [Reuters]. “- President Joe Biden’s assist amongst Arab Individuals, who’re essential voters in battleground election states, has plunged from a snug majority in 2020 to simply 17%, a brand new ballot exhibits, amid rising anger over the Democratic president’s assist for Israel’s assaults on Gaza. Arab American assist for Biden, at 59% in 2020, fell even earlier than the outbreak of violence within the Center East to 35%, the ballot commissioned by the Arab American Institute confirmed, however has halved since. The ballot, launched Tuesday, marks the primary time since its inception in 1997 {that a} majority of Arab Individuals didn’t establish as Democrats – 32% now establish as Republicans and 31% as independents. Forty p.c of these polled mentioned they’d vote for former President Donald Trump, the probably Republican candidate in 2024, up 5 proportion factors from 2020. The ballot was performed by John Zogby Methods of 500 Arab Individuals with some answering on-line solely. The ballot has a margin of error of 4.9 proportion factors.” • Not a superexcellent ballot, however absolutely directionally appropriate.

MI: “Democrats concern that Biden’s Israel-Hamas struggle stance may value him reelection in Michigan” [Associated Press]. “Michigan was a crucial part of the so-called blue wall of states that features Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that Biden returned to the Democratic column, serving to him win the White Home in 2020. Since then, Democrats have felt extra assured about their standing in Michigan, significantly after Gov. Gretchen Whitmer notched a commanding 10-point reelection victory final yr.” Whitmer, after all, had a pleasant little tailwind from the spooks, what with a typical FBI entrapment scheme. Extra: “Michigan holds the biggest focus of Arab Individuals within the nation and over 310,000 residents are of Center Japanese or North African ancestry. Many in the neighborhood are pledging to coalesce towards Biden’s reelection marketing campaign until he requires a ceasefire within the struggle. Anger over Democrats’ response to the struggle was on full show this previous weekend in Wayne County, house to the biggest bloc of Democratic votes within the state and the supply of a lot of the pushback. A day after hundreds of individuals gathered in downtown Detroit to name for a ceasefire, Gov. Whitmer had a Sunday look in Dearborn canceled after a protest was deliberate outdoors the occasion. Whitmer, a co-chair of Biden’s reelection marketing campaign, mentioned in an announcement that her look would have ‘distracted’ from the occasion.”

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“Democrats quietly transfer to succeed Biden” [Axios]. “Democratic governors and senators are quietly transferring to spice up their nationwide profiles and place themselves to run for president in 2028 — or in 2024, if President Biden unexpectedly drops out…. In current months, greater than half a dozen Democratic lawmakers have established nationwide political organizations, launched into resume-building overseas journeys, and visited states that historically maintain early presidential primaries.” Booker, Pritzker, Whitmer, Harris, Newsom are the large ones; Phil Murphy, Ro Khanna (see beneath), Mark Kelly, and Josh Shapiro are additionally talked about. Extra: “If Biden had been to depart the race earlier than the top of this yr, there probably can be time for candidates to get on sufficient state ballots to find out the nomination. But when he had been to exit after Jan. 1, the nomination combat extra probably would go to the Democrats’ conference in Chicago as a result of candidates wouldn’t be capable to get on the poll in sufficient states, in keeping with a current evaluation by the Brookings Establishment’s Elaine Kamarck, who has been on the DNC’s Guidelines Committee since 1997. In that case, Biden probably would have some delegates and will ask them to assist a candidate — however the delegates can be free to assist who they need.” • Sizzling take, price what you paid for it: Pritzker is the decide of the litter, despite the fact that Newsom thinks he’s. UPDATE On Newsom, I acquired too glib, and forgot his dyslexia points, that are severe. He might want oligarchical energy as a Pacific Rim state, and never in Washington in any respect. Let’s wait and see.

“What occurs if a presidential candidate can not take workplace as a consequence of demise or incapacitation earlier than January 2025?” [Elaine Kamarck, Brookings Institution]. “The authority of the nationwide events to decide on their nominee within the occasion the nominee can’t run comes as a shock to many on this day of wall-to-wall primaries. And but, it’s a reminder that the selection of a nominee is occasion enterprise — not state legislation, not federal legislation, and never constitutional legislation.” • Yep. For the Democrats, see NC right here. As soon as once more — and we’re seeing this come into even sharper focus with the Fourteenth Modification controversy — management of the poll is the distinctive competence of the fashionable political occasion.

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“Brazile pans Dean Phillips run towards Biden: ‘Have enjoyable on the market’” [The Hill]. “Brazile mentioned she wasn’t positive what Phillips’s ‘sport plan’ was, noting the uphill problem that Phillips would have with the intention to launch any actual problem to unseat the incumbent president. ‘That is 2023, and the final time I regarded on the calendar, there are at the very least six states that you must be on the poll by the top of subsequent month, 22 states earlier than the top of the yr. The race for delegates is just not a reputation contest. It’s a race the place you must really exit and establish, recruit folks,’ she mentioned on ABC’s ‘This Week’ on Sunday, the place she serves as a panelist. ‘So good luck, Mr. Phillips. Have enjoyable on the market. However, guess what? I cannot be seeing him in Chicago until he’s an automated superdelegate,’ she mentioned, referring to town internet hosting the Democratic Nationwide Conference.”

“The true menace Dean Phillips poses to Biden” [Politico]. “Even Biden’s backers in New Hampshire, the place Phillips is relying on an early upset, are frightened about his age. A 63 p.c majority of Democratic major voters supporting Biden in a CNN/College of New Hampshire ballot final month mentioned age was their largest concern concerning the president. Already, the Minnesota congressmember is signaling this will likely be a central a part of his argument. And he’s maybe a greater messenger than Trump, who is simply three years youthful than Biden.” • As I mentioned, I believe “exhausted majority” isn’t a nasty message–

“Minnesota’s Phillips sees ‘exhausted majority’ as his path to the White Home” [MPR News]. “The kickoff has been extremely orchestrated, with long-form profiles and nationwide tv interviews in-built round it. Phillips can be going through scrutiny on a scale he didn’t obtain as a congressional candidate together with his funds, previous feedback and extra beneath the microscope. However he does have some presidential marketing campaign veterans surrounding him. Steve Schmidt, who helped Republican Sen. John McCain to the nomination in 2008, is a prime Phillips strategist.” • Schmidt is a Lincoln Challenge veteran, if “veteran” is the phrase I need. Right here is the origin of the phrase–

“The Hidden Tribes of America” (PDF) [More in Common]. Dates from 2018. Funding. From this diagram, “exhausted majority” is one other means of claiming [genuflects] “centrists.”

And in prose, from web page 117:

America’s tribal politics, from social media trolling to debates within the halls of Congress, are repelling a majority of Individuals. The Exhausted Majority is uncomfortable with the ideological conformity and the outrage tradition which have taken maintain in essentially the most extremely engaged tribes. Individuals within the Exhausted Majority are sometimes hesitant to weigh in for concern of claiming the incorrect factor. This contributes to the detachment of the 41 p.c of Individuals who belong to the Passive Liberal and Politically Disengaged tribes. Public points have at all times engaged some people extra strongly than others. What’s hanging now could be the widening gulf between those that are extremely engaged in America’s polarized political debates and the Exhausted Majority of Individuals, who discover the relentless ideological battle dispiriting. They really feel unrepresented in in the present day’s polarized politics. The views of the Exhausted Majority are grounds for hope in addition to concern. On the one hand, they reject ideological purity and acknowledge the need of compromise in politics as in all areas of life. Alternatively, their detachment (and the media’s choice for battle) permits the opposing wings of the spectrum to dominate public debate. This contributes to the misperception that America is made up of simply two teams who’re hell-bent on defeating one another in any respect prices. A brand new understanding of the American political panorama is required, one which now not airbrushes this Exhausted Majority out of the image, however places them within the heart.

Look, I’m exhausted as a result of persons are dropping like flies, whether or not from “Democrat wars” or the Biden administration’s stochastic eugenicism on Covid. However I’m unsure I’m, nicely, represented on this framework. (Additionally, I believe “tribalism” isn’t sociology, even sloppy sociology; it’s simply market segmentation utilized to political opinions based mostly on surveys; see web page 5.)

“An exhausted majority in America is bored with polarization, desires these governing to hunt widespread floor” [Cleveland.com]. From January 2023: “A time period utilized by Rep. Tim Ryan in his Senate marketing campaign, this majority of Individuals is what we name, the ‘Exhausted Majority’— people who usually are extra versatile of their political opinions, fed up with polarization, imagine we will discover widespread floor, and are much less lively in our political discourse. Nationwide, they signify two-thirds of the inhabitants, but usually are not as current in our public debates. Whereas Ryan didn’t win, there’s proof that the ‘exhausted majority’ voice is one which we should always begin listening to extra intently… Regardless of the portrayal of a “divided” nation, we don’t have to decide on this story of polarization and division. However with the intention to try this we should resist the temptation to view our fellow Individuals’ views by the slim lens of the divisive voices we hear in our public arenas.” • From a Extra in Frequent staffer. Be aware that Tim Ryan had Steve Schmidt as an advisor, as does Phillips.

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“Spoiler alert? Ballot has RFK Jr. grabbing 22 p.c towards Biden and Trump” [Politico]. “Operating with a promise to ‘spoil’ the 2024 presidential contest, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. simply obtained an indication that he could be making good on that pitch: A current ballot exhibits him with 22 p.c assist in a hypothetical three-way race towards President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Biden, against this, would take 39 p.c of the vote, and Trump would come away with 36 p.c, in keeping with the Quinnipiac College’s survey. In one other constructive signal for Kennedy, he got here away with the backing of a plurality of independents: 36 p.c selected him, in contrast with 31 p.c for Trump and 30 p.c for Biden. The general 22 p.c doesn’t recommend he can but break by the two-party system and put his identify on the Electoral Faculty map subsequent yr as an unbiased. However the greater menace his candidacy poses to Biden and Trump is the potential of siphoning simply sufficient votes from one in every of them to swing an in any other case coin-flip state in November.” • Yep. Although it’s early, I haven’t seen any proof that RFK is concentrating on this or that swing state.

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“Backing Biden in 2024, this Democrat congressman sparks 2028 hypothesis” [FOX]. “‘I do regardless of the president tells me in terms of 2024 and his group,’ Khanna mentioned throughout a Fox Information Digital interview. ‘I’m a foot soldier in terms of ensuring he will get reelected.’ However that mission could pay dividends for Khanna in 2028, when 47-year-old politician from California could have nationwide aspirations.”

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GA: “The Trump period has modified the politics of native elections in Georgia, a pivotal 2024 battleground” [Associated Press]. “Going into the 2024 presidential election, the dynamics in Johns Creek and different close by Atlanta suburbs replicate how partisan and cultural divisions that intensified since Trump’s 2016 run have trickled right down to native campaigns. Some activists and voters now view these nominally nonpartisan contests as crucial fronts in shaping the nation’s id. ‘Individuals have a proper to know who they’re voting for,’ mentioned Betsy Kramer, a Republican Celebration volunteer who’s backing [Stacy] Skinner in Johns Creek, which is about 30 miles north of downtown Atlanta in Fulton County. ‘I’m not voting for a Democrat,’ Kramer mentioned. ‘I’m involved that if Democrats begin taking on north Fulton, the entire space goes to vary dramatically.’ The suburbs of Georgia’s largest metropolis as soon as anchored the state’s Republican institution. At this time, they play a major position in figuring out the outcomes of statewide races. In 2020, they had been pivotal in Democrat Joe Biden’s shut victory over Trump, the Republican incumbent, within the president election. This swath of the metro space has change into extra demographically and politically various over current many years, with progress amongst Asian American, Black and Hispanic populations that assist increase Democrats’ vote totals. The share of Georgia residents who establish as white and non-Hispanic fell in the newest census to 50.1%, the bottom on report. Moreover, some Republicans who nonetheless make up north Fulton County’s electoral majority have by no means marched in lockstep with Trump and the tea occasion, a motion that opposes the Washington political institution and espouses conservative and libertarian philosophy. In 2020, Trump underperformed historic Republican benefits within the space on his solution to dropping Georgia by fewer than 12,000 votes out of 5 million solid. And the area as soon as elected Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s secretary of state who bucked Trump’s efforts to overturn his defeat, to the state Senate.”

VA: “Why a 2023 Virginia Election Is a Proving Floor for 2024” [Wall Street Journal]. “THE PLAINS, Va.—For clues concerning the power of each events’ messages heading into 2024, look no additional than this suburban Northern Virginia enclave…. The Nov. 7 contest pits Republican Juan Pablo Segura, a 35-year-old entrepreneur, towards Democrat Russet Perry, 39, a former Central Intelligence Company officer and prosecutor.” Superior. One other CIA Democrat. Extra: “The seat is vital to Democrats’ bid to maintain their slim edge within the 40-seat Senate, the place they’ve squared off towards Youngkin and Republicans who narrowly lead the Home…. The battle for the newly drawn seat overlaying elements of prosperous Loudoun and Fauquier counties is shaping up because the state’s costliest Senate race this yr, with greater than $11 million raised by Oct. 26. If Republicans flip the Senate and maintain the Home, the GOP can have a trifecta with Youngkin within the governor’s workplace.”

VA: “Virginia’s Election May Determine Destiny of Youngkin’s Training Agenda” [The 74]. “Virginia, the place Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin nonetheless has two years left in his time period [is] a real battleground whose final result may function a bellwether for the nationwide temper. And in few different states have training debates performed such a distinguished position in current political historical past…. Management over the State Meeting will likely be determined by only a handful of swing seats, however the vary of potentialities for governance is big. If Democrats keep their 22-18 lead within the state Senate — and maybe win a majority within the Home of Delegates, the place Republicans at the moment maintain a four-seat edge — they are going to retain the power to examine Youngkin’s ambitions and escape the rightward thrust that has introduced expanded college alternative and anti-critical race principle laws to states like Florida. But when the governor’s occasion is ready to seize each chambers, he may trip his conservative report and electoral victories to an enviable perch within the Republican presidential major.” • New supply for me that quotes Emily Oster approvingly, so Deal with with Care. Nonetheless, on the politics, they’re proper.

Republican Funhouse

“Speaker Johnson: Choice on Biden impeachment articles coming ‘very quickly’” [The Hill]. “Requested throughout a press convention if he believes there’s sufficient proof to maneuver on articles of impeachment towards Biden, Johnson mentioned: ‘I do imagine that very quickly we’re coming to some extent of choice on it.’ He later added, ‘We’re gonna observe the proof the place it leads and we’ll see, and I’m not gonna pre-determine it this morning.’ The newly minted Speaker, who has a constitutional legislation background, emphasised the significance of due course of.”

“Speaker Johnson faucets veteran GOP operative as chief spokesperson” [Politico]. “Speaker Mike Johnson has tapped veteran Republican operative Raj Shah to construct and oversee his communications operation, in keeping with an individual aware of the transfer…. Shah beforehand spent 4 years as senior vice chairman for public affairs at Fox Company. Earlier than that, he served as a prime communications official within the Trump White Home, and was analysis director on the Republican Nationwide Committee throughout the 2016 marketing campaign.”

“Does New Speaker of the Home Mike Johnson Have a Financial institution Account?’ [Daily Beast]. “Newly elected Speaker of the Home Mike Johnson (R-LA) doesn’t have a checking account. At the very least, that’s what Johnson stories on years of non-public monetary disclosures, which date again to 2016 and reveal a monetary life that, within the context of his position as a congressman and now speaker, seems terribly precarious. Over the course of seven years, Johnson has by no means reported a checking or financial savings account in his identify, nor within the identify of his spouse or any of his youngsters, disclosures present. In reality, he doesn’t seem to have cash stashed in any investments, together with his newest submitting—overlaying 2022—displaying no belongings by any means. After all, it’s unlikely Johnson doesn’t even have a checking account. What’s extra probably is Johnson lives paycheck to paycheck—a lot in order that he doesn’t come up with the money for in his checking account to set off the checking account disclosure guidelines for members of Congress.” • Speaks nicely of him, really.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are really studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not totally) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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Realignment and Legitimacy


“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

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Censorship and Propaganda

“COVID Lockdowns Have been a Large Experiment. It Was a Failure” [New York Magazine]. • Proper, that’s why 1.9 million Chinese language died after Xi kowtowed to capital and deserted Zero Covid. Oh nicely, they had it coming would have died anyhow.

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” could be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, most probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with persona adjustments therefrom.

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Elite Maleficence

HICPAC is assembly in the present day:

“Healthcare Personnel Use of N95 Respirators or Medical/ Surgical Masks for Safety Towards Respiratory Infections: A Systematic Assessment and MetaAnalysis” (PDF) (draft) [CDC]. Weirdly, this rubbish barge draft — higher than a PowerPoint, at the very least! — has no cowl sheet giving the writer(s). Additionally, all the fabric that went into the creation of this draft should be public for CDC to be in compliance with the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA). It’s not. A cursory studying yields this footnote on web page two. The textual content, at 1-5:

And word 2, throughout the 1-5 vary:

Be aware 2 refers back to the long-discredited, shamelessly tendentious, bungled, and Brownnose Institute-driven Cochrane Report. So we’re solely two pages in, and we already know the unknown producers of this dreck deliverable usually are not solely sloppy copy editors — I’ve helpfully highlighted the topic verb-agreement challenge; one can solely marvel what else is incorrect — however missing in scientific judgment (one can solely hope that not one of the authors had been adversely affected by the superspreading occasion that CDC sponsored for its “an infection detectives” in April).

And studying additional:

At [1]: I suppose we’ll need to see about that. Quoting from the JAMA article linked in yesterday’s Water Cooler: “The upper filtration effectivity of N95 respirators in contrast with surgical masks gives additional proof of efficacy—primarily, a dose-response affiliation of the intervention with the end result.” Sure, this can be a group setting, however I’d be hard-pressed to see why engineering that works in a group settings doesn’t work in a hospital. Additionally, I word that the pure RCT masks research from BanglaDesh was excluded, given its conclusion that surgical masks had been higher than material masks; IOW, the higher the engineering, the higher the safety.

At [2]: Doesn’t this boil right down to saying that all present research are enormously confounded?

I hope to have extra on this emissionvile screed doc over the weekend. (I bear in mind the phrase “strong” from my consulting days; for deliverables, “strong” meant a number of honkin’ huge binders. This steamer draft is clearly “strong”; it’s a ginormous Gish Gallop, and so I’ll want to seek out an angle of assault {that a} easy blogger can execute.

On the spot karma:

Now, this actually implies droplet tranmission, so the joke reinforces droplet dogma, however there’s something scrumptious about HICPAC members spraying SARS-CoV-2-laded loogies in one another. Nobody can say they didn’t earn it!

By their fruits shall ye know them:

No filtration, only a few masks.

Proper now the Committee members are infecting one another at lunch:

Possibly some sort reader will take a pay attention…

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Case Information

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, October 30:

Lambert right here: Instances leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card. And Thanksgiving is developing.

Regional knowledge:


NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 28:

Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB. trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, October 14:

Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services reduce by directors of sick intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 28:

Lambert right here: Flattening. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.


Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of November 2:

Flattened, (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least. October 30:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?


NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 30:

1.3%. Enhance. (It might be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and acquired examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 28:

Lambert right here: Slight enhance. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, October 9:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers:

Sudden huge BA.2.86 look.


NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: Dunno why no updates. I’ll need to drop this one, with nice reluctance; I like my sources non-CDC.

Whole: 1,181,151 – 1,180,669 = 482 (482 * 365 = 175,930 deaths per yr, in the present day’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, October 27:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of Individuals submitting for unemployment advantages rose by 5,000 to 217,000 on the week ending October twenty eighth, above market expectations of 210,000, to mark the very best quantity of claims in almost two months. Within the meantime, persevering with claims rose by 35,000 to 1,818,000 within the earlier week, the very best since April and above market expectations of 1,800,000, suggesting that the unemployed are having larger difficulties discovering employment. The information aligned with indicators from the Federal Reserve that labor market situations are going by some softening, regardless of remaining at traditionally tight ranges.”

Employment State of affairs: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US-based employers introduced plans to chop 36,836 jobs in October 2023, the least in three months, and after 47,457 redundancies in September. The tech sector led all industries with 6,524 cuts, essentially the most since Could, adopted by warehousing (4,138), monetary firms (3,419), and insurers (2,752). ‘Job reduce plans have slowed considerably because the first half of the yr, and customers have continued to spend, even within the face of excessive inflation. Pandemic financial savings and better wages have gotten many employees by financial uncertainty,’ mentioned Andy Challenger.”

Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing unit Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured items within the US superior 2.8 p.c from the earlier month to $601.5 in September 2023, essentially the most since January 2021, greater than market expectations of a 2.4 p.c rise and after a 1 p.c enhance.”

* * *

The Bezzle: “WeWork plans to file for chapter as early as subsequent week, supply says” [Reuters]. ” WeWork (WE.N) plans to file for chapter as early as subsequent week, a supply aware of the matter mentioned on Tuesday, because the SoftBank Group-backed firm struggles with a large debt pile and hefty losses. Shares of the versatile workspace supplier fell 32% in prolonged buying and selling after the Wall Avenue Journal first reported the information. They’ve fallen roughly 96% this yr. New York-based WeWork is contemplating submitting a Chapter 11 petition in New Jersey, the WSJ reported, citing folks aware of the matter. WeWork declined to remark. Earlier on Tuesday, WeWork mentioned it had entered into an settlement with collectors for non permanent postponement of funds for a few of its debt, with the grace interval nearing an finish.”

Media: “US media veterans again new buying and selling agency with monetary information arm” [Financial Times]. “The enterprise, based by investor Nathaniel Brooks Horwitz and author Sam Koppelman, would comprise two entities: a buying and selling fund and a gaggle of analysts and journalists producing tales based mostly on publicly accessible materials, in keeping with a number of folks aware of the matter. The fund would place trades earlier than articles had been revealed, after which publish its analysis and buying and selling thesis, they mentioned, however wouldn’t commerce on info that was not publicly accessible. The beginning-up, known as Hunterbrook, had raised $10mn in seed funding and is focusing on a $100mn launch for its fund, in keeping with two folks concerned. ‘Watchdog’ was a reputation floated early on for the information arm. Matt Murray, the previous editor-in-chief of The Wall Avenue Journal, is appearing as an adviser by his position with Exterior the Field Investments, one of many firm’s traders. Hunterbrook and Murray declined to remark. The enterprise capital arm of Emerson Collective, the philanthropic organisation run by Laurene Powell Jobs that’s the majority proprietor of The Atlantic journal, can be an investor. Representatives for Emerson didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark. In an early message to potential traders, seen by the Monetary Occasions, Horwitz mentioned the funding fund would get ‘distinctive entry’ to articles earlier than they’re revealed. ‘Fairly than attempt to predict or react to occasions, we time trades on information we break ourselves,’ he wrote, styling the enterprise as .” • Hmm.

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At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 33 Worry (earlier shut: 32 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 28 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 2 at 1:22:25 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

So long as wint is on the Twitter:

Class Warfare

“An Epidemic of Unhappiness Is Consuming Younger Individuals. It May Hobble the Economic system” [Barron’s]. “Within the newest analysis, I requested this query: Over the previous 30 days, what variety of these days [were] unhealthy psychological well being days? For those who mentioned “day-after-day of my life is a nasty psychological well being day,” that’s what I name misery. In 2011, about 5% of girls beneath age 25 reported psychological misery. However by 2023, greater than 10% mentioned day-after-day of their lives was a nasty psychological well being day. The identical factor is occurring with younger males. It isn’t only a younger girl’s drawback. Each younger ladies and younger males have seen this uptick, though for ladies it’s worse. Up to now, now we have seen that ranges of psychological misery range particularly by training—. At first, I assumed the Covid-19 pandemic might be the trigger, nevertheless it isn’t simply Covid. It’s clear within the knowledge that the pattern began previous to Covid. You possibly can see that it began roughly in 2011. Covid simply prolonged the pattern.” • 2011? After it was clear Obama had taken away “hope,” maybe. And that there can be no change. (Training is, after all, a proxy for sophistication.)

Information of the Wired

New Beatles tune:

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Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “Nikon D3100; Hydrangea; Naples Island, Lengthy Seashore, California.”

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