Home Economics 2:00PM Water Cooler 11/15/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/15/2023 | bare capitalism

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2:00PM Water Cooler 11/15/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Tune of the Day

Lengthy-billed Thrush, Sandakphu, Darjeeling District, West Bengal, India. “Montane, Evergreen Forest, Bamboo, Scrub.”

* * *

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

“Dialog With an ‘Insurrectionist’: He Took Nancy Pelosi’s Lectern” [Newsweek]. A should learn, not least as a result of it confirms my priors (see The Class Composition of the Capitol Rioters (First Lower) and The Organizational Capability and Behavioral Traits of the Capitol Rioters (First Lower). The entire piece may be very entertaining, in a bemused kind of approach, however this to me is the important thing level: “‘I assumed it could make an important image, so I carried it 20 yards to the middle of the room, gave a brief speech and left it there.’ His speech, he stated, consisted of him railing in opposition to traitors and treason and his concept that price range gadgets must be voted on individually.” Similar factor with the Buffalo Horns dude; he made a speech too, and nothing got here of it. In different phrases, no group no matter. (I can’t discover the quote from the Bolshevik Revolution the place IIRC a sailor screams at Lenin: “Take energy, dammit!” Nothing like that right here.)

Biden Administration

“The fortieth day of the battle Gallant on the discharge of hostages: Hamas is able to pay for some peace” (Google translation from Hebrew) [i24]. On Al-Shifa hospital:

Oh. Extra commentary:

“The Secret Service has been mendacity to you concerning the White Home cocaine scandal” [FOX]. “Good factor we now have the paperwork from the Secret Service proper right here. However right here’s the factor: The Secret Service redacted the place the cocaine was first discovered. Now, if the cocaine was truly first discovered within the cubby, they usually photographed it within the cubby, why would they redact that? After which at one level, the Secret Service says this suspicious substance is a white powder in a small Ziploc bag on the redacted foyer ground. What? Foyer ground? The foyer into what room? The library. And I assumed they discovered the cocaine within the cubby. Properly, the cubby isn’t on the ground. The cubby’s on the wall. Afterward within the night time. They stated it was within the cubby, they usually didn’t redact that. They need us to assume it was present in that little locker.” • It’s a sport of Clue, isn’t it? Hunter, within the Library. With the spoon.

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

* * *

“High GOP Home Member Hits Engoron With Ethics Grievance” [1945]. “A high Republican congresswoman has hit New York Justice Arthur F. Engoron with an ethics criticism because of alleged politicking for the Democratic Celebration whereas being a justice of the New York Supreme Courtroom… Stefanik alleges that Engoron violated these guidelines. ‘Decide Engoron and his employees are partisan Democrat donors. As not too long ago as 2018, Decide Engoron donated to the Manhattan Democrats – regardless that Part 100.5 says that judges ‘shall chorus’ from ‘making a contribution to a political group,” Stefanik writes in her criticism to the New York State Fee on Judicial Conduct. ‘Part 100.5 additionally stipulates {that a} ‘decide shall prohibit members of the decide’s employees’ from contributing greater than $500 ‘within the combination throughout any calendar 12 months to all political campaigns for political workplace.’ Allison Greenfield has served as Decide Engoron’s principal legislation clerk since 2019. … The congresswoman continues, ‘In 2022 alone, Greenfield donated ‘$3,335 in political donations to Democrat candidates and causes.’ She’s already given greater than $1,000 in 2023 to campaigns.” • Hmm.

* * *

* * *

“Freeway Catastrophe Presents Hurdle for Newsom’s Nationwide Ambitions” [David Dayen, The American Prospect]. We don’t hyperlink to Dayen a lot, for good causes I received’t go into right here, however on this publish he’s so on level I’ve to cite. Recall that there was additionally a freeway fireplace in Philly, so we now have a baseline. “The preliminary evaluation in Philadelphia was that I-95 could be closed for months, perhaps by way of Thanksgiving. However [Democrat PA Governor Josh] Shapiro mobilized union building staff and enabled a novel use of recycled glass to get the freeway up and working in lower than two weeks… That set a precedent that Newsom is now going to wish to dwell as much as. There isn’t a present timetable for reopening the ten. Whereas many of the web site has been cleared of hazardous supplies and federal emergency funds have been made obtainable, engineers haven’t but decided whether or not they might merely retrofit the prevailing construction, or be pressured to demolish and rebuild it. The message to residents has been to strap in for an extended winter of east-west driving both approach. That’s not going to fly for Newsom for a number of causes. He isn’t a newcomer in a purple state his first 12 months on the job; the truth is, he’s termed out in 2026. However Newsom has nationwide aspirations, which is the worst-kept secret in America. If the ten closure lingers and building falls behind, public anger will construct. Shapiro got here in properly forward of schedule, was utterly clear (he even arrange a webcam to trace progress), and thrived below stress. That may inevitably be used as a measuring stick for Newsom. Newsom’s reputation not too long ago sank to an all-time low in California, an across-the-board drop that has an unclear origin.” • After all, the DNC can pressure whoever they wish to down our throats, particularly if (when?) Biden pulls up lame. However skeptical about Newsom, California oligarch and pseudo-Getty scion although he’s. First, his hair. Come on. Second, the French Laundry incident. Loads of grist for oppo there! Lastly, his dyslexia. Oppo once more — childrens’ books and trauma apart — however for Newsom “a five-minute speech might require six hours of preparation and analysis.” So what occurs together with his briefing books? Do staffers learn them aloud?

* * *

“Newest Polls Present My Path to Victory” [Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.] “Based on a brand new nationwide ballot by Quinnipiac College, I beat Trump and Biden amongst voters ages 18-34 with 38% of the vote in comparison with Biden’s 32% and Trump’s 27%…. I’m additionally outpacing Biden and Trump amongst unbiased voters, with 36% in comparison with 31% for Biden and 30% for Trump…. One other latest ballot performed by The New York Occasions and Siena School reveals that I’m closing the hole on Trump and Biden in six battleground states — AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, and WI — the place I come inside single digits of the two-party candidates. In these six battleground states, I beat Trump and Biden amongst 18-44 12 months olds.”

* * *

“Q&A with Rep. Dean Phillips” [The Dartmouth (Petal)]. Phillips: “Individuals are screaming as loud as they’ll that they’re determined. Life isn’t reasonably priced. It’s true right here in New Hampshire with heating oil, costs are so excessive for some that there are hundreds ready in line for subsidies, children going to high school hungry, housing out of attain for many individuals and changing into unaffordable for individuals who are even of their homes proper now, grocery costs by way of the roof. I voted for lots of the President’s insurance policies. My competition isn’t that what we did was dangerous. My competition is it’s not sufficient. And my competition is that Bidennomics has develop into an anchor weighing down the Democratic Celebration, because it represents to most People. I’m not saying that the insurance policies had been dangerous. All I’m saying is we now have to do higher. How can we do this? Affordability, affordability, affordability. Power coverage, our farm invoice and meals coverage, our housing coverage, our training coverage and our well being care coverage, are all parts of how we increase the muse for arduous working People.” And: “The trail ahead is mutual empathy… I intend to be the primary Jewish President in American historical past, who indicators paperwork that assist set up a Palestinian state. That to me is the answer. And that’s the place the empathy begins.” • Fascinating!

* * *

PA: “Democrats’ Large Bucks County Faculty Board Sweep Ought to Unnerve Republicans All over the place” [RealClearPolitics]. “There are solely a handful of counties on this nation that may authentically declare their voting habits are bona fide bellwethers for elections in battleground states. Bucks County, a suburb close to Philadelphia, is considered one of them. What makes it so is the political range of voters that’s cut up up into three distinct geographical patches: Decrease Bucks, Central Bucks and Higher Bucks…. Decrease Bucks has all the time been full of working-class voters… Central Bucks are the voters who moved up and out of Decrease Bucks because it started to say no as trade did. They typically are higher center class…. Then there’s Higher Bucks, which is a component rural, half suburb…. Of the three elements of Bucks County, it’s the one that’s the most really conservative…. On Tuesday, voters determined to alter the stability of energy on the Central Bucks Faculty District’s faculty board, which beforehand had a 6-3 Republican majority. This week, voters flipped it to a pending 6-3 Democratic majority…. Apparently, a majority of voters rebelled in opposition to the involvement of the nationwide Mothers for Liberty, portrayed by the media as excessive, and which was thought by many centrist voters, even those that normally lean Republican, to make use of rhetoric that was a bridge too far. Bucks County voters are telling Republicans to cease with the overreach. They’re additionally telling the Democrats, ‘We didn’t precisely vote for you as a lot as we voted in opposition to the Republicans.’”

Republican Funhouse

Mitchell on comity:

To be truthful, we’re nowwhere close to “Caning of Sumner” territory.

“Sen. Markwayne Mullin Stands Up To Battle Teamsters Boss Throughout Senate Listening to: ‘We Can End It Right here’” [RealClearPolitics]. “‘Properly, stand your butt up then,’ stated Sen. Mullin. ‘You’re a United States Senator, sit down,’ yelled Sen. Bernie Sanders, chairing the listening to.” • I hate that “your butt” locution. Typically spoken by an authority determine to a baby, what does it say about how the authority determine views youngsters?

“Rep. McCarthy: I Did Not Kidney Punch Republican Congressman That Voted To Oust Me From Speakership” [RealClearPolitics]. • In the event you’re explaining, you’re dropping.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, the truth is, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not completely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Democrats Plan to Spend Tens of millions to Weaken Republican Supermajorities” [New York Times]. “Democrats are pushing to interrupt up Republican supermajorities in states with Democratic governors, successfully battling to win again the veto pen district by district. Such supermajorities consequence when a single political social gathering has sufficient votes in each chambers of a legislature to override a governor’s veto, usually, although not all the time, by controlling two-thirds of the chamber. The extraordinary political dissonance of getting a governor of 1 social gathering and a supermajority of an opposing social gathering within the legislature is without doubt one of the starkest results of gerrymandering, revealing how events cling to evaporating energy. As gerrymanders constructed by each events for many years have tipped the scales to favor the social gathering of the map-drawers, legislative chambers have proved immune to shifting political winds on the state degree. At instances, these gerrymanders have locked in minority rule in legislatures whereas statewide workplaces, just like the governor’s, adhere to the wishes of a easy majority of voters. Although each events employed aggressive gerrymanders over the last spherical of redistricting in 2021, Republicans entered the cycle with a definite benefit: In 2010, G.O.P.-controlled state legislatures throughout the nation drew aggressive gerrymanders in state governments. Democrats had been caught off guard.” • Thanks, Obama.

“Disturbances In The Discourse” [Eschaton]. FTX poodle Rising Star Sean McElwee is again. “I hold telling about how a lot of The Discourse was actually fucked for a few years due (partly) to some FTX cash floating round… I received’t say any names, however there are some individuals who needs to be indicted for being straw donors who haven’t been!!!” • Dude! Say the names! I imply, we’re not speaking Epstein’s Black Ebook right here. Proper?

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

* * *

Maskstravaganza

Nonetheless searching for methods to justify what we must always by no means need to justify within the first place:

Good thought, although!

An infection

They simply can’t assist themselves:

One other PMC superspreading occasion.

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Plenty of exceptionally nasty sequelae, more than likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with character modifications therefrom.

* * *

Coverage

“USA – No immunity for jail officers sued for COVID deaths in jail, Circuit Courtroom holds” [Covid-19 Litigation]. “Shortly after the COVID-19 grew to become a nationwide emergency, the Governor of California issued an order suspending the consumption of inmates into all state correctional services and, quickly afterwards, the California Correctional Well being Care Companies adopted a coverage opposing the switch of inmates between prisons, reasoning that transfers would “carry a major danger of spreading transmission of the illness between establishments”. On this context, a gaggle of high-level officers within the California jail system transferred 122 high-risk inmates from the California Establishment for Males (CIM), the place there was an outbreak of the COVID-19, to San Quentin State Jail, the place there have been no recognized circumstances of the virus. Many of the males who had been transferred weren’t examined for COVID-19 and none of them was correctly screened for signs earlier than the switch; moreover, regardless that a few of them exhibited signs, they weren’t placed on quarantine at their arrival on the jail; as a substitute, all of the transferred inmates had been housed in a unit with grated doorways. The switch resulted in a violent outbreak of COVID-19 on the San Quentin jail. Regardless of this state of affairs, the jail official continued to place in place insufficient protecting practices and ignored the suggestions acquired by each the Public Well being Officer and a court-appointed medical monitor of California jail. Consequently, many inmates and a guard died. The heirs of the latter filed swimsuit in opposition to the jail officers claiming that they’d violated their relative’s substantive due course of rights by affirmatively, and with deliberate indifference, putting him in peril. Certainly, below , state employers – who in precept don’t have any constitutional responsibility to supply their workers with a secure working surroundings – are liable once they affirmatively and with deliberate indifference create or expose their workers to a harmful working surroundings. Plaintiffs additionally alleged that defendants breached their proper to familial affiliation.” • Very attention-grabbing. Oh, and the “the Governor of California” on the time was none apart from Gavin Newsom.

Nonetheless, the same case within the UK loses:

Elite Maleficence

Eugenicist Biden Administration continues to erase Covid’s airborne transmission, and any mitigations based mostly on it (air flow, Corsi-Rosenthal containers/HEPA filters, respirators):

Word that it is a full repudiation of the views of the White Home’s personal Workplace of Science and Know-how Coverage (OSTP), as expressed in 2022. The then-director of OSTP, Alondra Nelson, is a Black girl. I assumed we had been presupposed to take heed to them. Anyhow, the Google discloses no hits on airborne Covid transmission by Nelson in 2023, so maybe mentioning it could have been a career-ending transfer. So it goes! (In some unspecified time in the future, accident, ignorance, and inattention develop into implausible explanations, and the perfect working assumption is that the outcomes of a coverage — on this case, mass an infection by SARS-CoV-2– are the supposed outcomes of the coverage. Similar with Maskless Mandy, HICPAC, and so forth.)

* * *

Lambert right here: Plenty of indicators up, beginning with wastewater. (The one I fear about essentially the most is ER visits, since I believe that information is tough to sport, and who desires to go to the ER, anyhow?) I believe it’s time to ship the kinfolk these clippings you saved on mind harm (additionally, after all, the 2022 clippings: right here, right here. And the 2020 one).

Case Knowledge

From BioBot wastewater information, November 13:

Lambert right here: Circumstances up, simply in time for Thanksgiving (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was making an attempt to hide once they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).

Regional information:

All over the place!

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, November 11:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, October 28:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services lower by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information shall be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 11:

Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater information. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I’d doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, regardless that CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of November 15:

Decline flattens. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, a minimum of. November 4:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, November 13:

-1.4%. However bouncing round. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and obtained examined anyhow.)

From Cleveland Clinic, November 11:

Lambert right here: Improve (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, October 23:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers, nonetheless from October 23:

Sudden large BA.2.86 look. This variant chart has not been up to date, which makes me surprise if CDC is gaming the info, and BA.2.86 is worse than we expect.

Deaths

Complete: 1,181,963 – 1,181,872 – 1,181,863 – 1,181,620 = 91 (91 * 365 = 33,215 deaths per 12 months, as we speak’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could need to determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of loss of life and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, November 15:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

• Demographic impacts:

NPIs looks like a attain, although.

• Extra demographic impacts:

Darwin Awards for everybody. (It might be good to have the ability to examine each these datasets with the “Spanish Flu” pandemic.)

The Gallery

“Bringing the portray ‘Seascape close to Les Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer’ (1888) to life” my candy Aunt Fanny:

The portray is already alive. The paint + the eyes + the mind (+, I suppose, tradition and style) make the waves, not some tediously literal minded developer.

Information of the Wired

“How Stone Partitions Turned a Signature Landform of New England” [Smithsonian]. • Legal guidelines of Correspondence between mentalitiy and landform?

* * *

Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are nice! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From EJ:

EJ writes: “I noticed this as we speak on a tree (on Greenleaf Ave. in Chicago. I believe the tree was a sort of Maple. The fungus was so fairly and I simply hope it’s in a cooperative relationship with the tree and never killing it. The tree regarded wholesome to me).” Can readers speculate? How would one inform?

* * *

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